We examine the impact of a government-initiated CSR project on corporate misconduct using the unique setting of China’s Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) program. The difference-in-differences estimates show that firms participating in the TPA program engage in fewer misconduct activities than do their counterparts. This finding is robust to the parallel trends test, the placebo test, alternative regression specifications, alternative research designs, the reverse causality analysis, and the bivariate probit model with partial observability. Further analysis shows that TPA participation enhances the (...) ability of external financial professionals to monitor performance by stimulating the dissemination of TPA-related incremental information, thereby contributing to the decline in corporate misconduct. The cross-sectional heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of TPA participation on corporate misconduct is more pronounced in firms with higher information asymmetry, with weaker political connections, and with weaker internal governance. Furthermore, we find evidence that TPA participation improves corporate financial performance but does not deteriorate information transparency. (shrink)

Stochastic forecasts in complex environments can benefit from combining the estimates of large groups of forecasters (“judges”). But aggregating multiple opinions faces several challenges. First, human judges are notoriously incoherent when their forecasts involve logically complex events. Second, individual judges may have specialized knowledge, so different judges may produce forecasts for different events. Third, the credibility of individual judges might vary, and one would like to pay greater attention to more trustworthy forecasts. These considerations limit the value of simple aggregation (...) methods like linear averaging. In this paper, a new algorithm is proposed for combining probabilistic assessments from a large pool of judges. Two measures of a judge’s likely credibility are introduced and used in the algorithm to determine the judge’s weight in aggregation. The algorithm was tested on a data set of nearly half a million probability estimates of events related to the 2008 U.S. presidential election (∼ 16000 judges). (shrink)

This paper analyzes individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, ours is the first study of electoral forecasting to involve multiple subnational predictions and to incorporate the influence of respondents’ home states. We relate a range of demographic, political, and cognitive variables to individual accuracy and predictions, as well as to how accuracy improved over time. We find strong support for wishful thinking bias in expectations, as (...) Republicans gave higher probabilities to McCain victories and were worse at overall prediction. In addition, we find that respondents living in states with higher vote shares for Obama performed better at prediction and displayed less wishful thinking bias. We conclude by showing that suitable aggregations of our respondents’ predictions outperformed Intrade (a prediction market) and fivethirtyeight.com (a poll-based forecast) at most points in time. (shrink)

��The Coherent Approximation Principle (CAP) is a method for aggregating forecasts of probability from a group of judges by enforcing coherence with minimal adjustment. This paper explores two methods to further improve the forecasting accuracy within the CAP framework and proposes practical algorithms that implement them. These methods allow flexibility to add fixed constraints to the coherentization process and compensate for the psychological bias present in probability estimates from human judges. The algorithms were tested on a data set of nearly (...) half a million probability estimates of events related to the 2008 U.S. presidential election (from about 16000 judges). The results show that both methods improve the stochastic accuracy of the aggregated forecasts compared to using simple CAP. (shrink)

Engineering failure investigations seek to reconstruct the actual causes of major engineering failures. The investigators need to establish the existence of certain past events and the actual causal relationships that these events bear to the failures in question. In this paper, I examine one method for reconstructing the actual causes of failure events, which I call "feature dependence". The basic idea of feature dependence is that some features of an event are informative about the features of its causes; therefore, the (...) investigators can use the features of a known failure event to reconstruct details of its causes. I make explicit the structure of feature dependence and the evidential basis of its key premises, and show how feature dependence works in the investigation of the American Airlines Flight 191 accident. (shrink)

Noted logician and philosopher addresses various forms of mathematical logic, discussing both theoretical underpinnings and practical applications. After historical survey, lucid treatment of set theory, model theory, recursion theory and constructivism and proof theory. Place of problems in development of theories of logic, logic’s relationship to computer science, more. Suitable for readers at many levels of mathematical sophistication. 3 appendixes. Bibliography. 1981 edition.

Wang Hui asks what it means for China to be modern and for modernity to be Chinese. Is there a rupture between tradition and modernity in China? How has Confucian thought evolved? Did China become modern in the Middle Ages? A deep intellectual history, The Rise of Modern Chinese Thought revises our senses of both modernity and Chinese philosophy.

本书共十章，内容包括：文学与文学理论；文学观念；文学特性；文学媒介；文学文本；文学品质；文学创作；文学阅读；文学批评等。.

本書採取史論結合的研究方法，堅持邏輯與歷史統一的原則，從儒學發展史的角度及易學哲學的高度，提煉出陳法哲學思想研究的若干重要命題，並以此為基礎展開系統研究；同時注重研究的學理性，緊密貼近陳法思想的本原， 既深入挖掘陳法哲學思想豐富的內涵，又充分展現其獨特個性色彩。本書使陳法哲學思想的原貌得以完整呈現，為系統研究中國易學和儒學發展史，為進一步深入研究貴州地方思想文化，提供有益參考和借鑒。.

Too often Buddhism has been subjected to the Procrustean box of western thought, whereby it is stretched to fit fixed categories or had essential aspects lopped off to accommodate vastly different cultural norms and aims. After several generations of scholarly discussion in English-speaking communities, it is time to move to the next hermeneutical stage. Buddhist philosophy must be liberated from the confines of a quasi-religious stereotype and judged on its own merits. Hence this work will approach Chinese Buddhism as a (...) philosophical tradition in its own right, not as an historical after-thought nor as an occasion for comparative discussions that assume the west alone sets the standards for or is the origin of philosophy and its methodologies. Viewed within their own context, Chinese Buddhist philosophers have much to contribute to a wide range of philosophical concerns, including metaphysics, epistemology, ethics, philosophy of language, philosophy of mind, and philosophy of religion, even though Western divisions of philosophy may not exhaust the rich contents of Chinese Buddhist Philosophy. (shrink)

作者通过讲述古希腊罗马哲学家丰富的思想和观点,探讨西方哲学精神的起源,揭示西方民族的精神取向,阐明西方民族思维方式的特征,帮助读者把握西方哲学的基本精神,养成理论思维的能力,培养高尚的情操,全面提高人 文素质.