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1. Kevin T. Kelly, Conor Mayo Wilson, Hanti Lin & Oliver Schulte, Participants:.
   Philosophy of science, statistics, and machine learning all recommend the selection of simple theories or models on the basis of empirical data, where simplicity has something to do with minimizing independent entities, principles, causes, or equational coefficients. This intuitive preference for simplicity is called Ockham's razor, after the fourteenth century theologian and logician William of Ockham. But in spite of its intuitive appeal, how could Ockham's razor help one find the true theory? For, in an updated version of Plato's Meno (...) paradox, if we already know that the truth is simple, we don't need Ockham's help. And if we don't already know that the truth is simple, what entitles us to assume that it is? (shrink)

   Medieval and Renaissance Philosophy

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2. Kevin T. Kelly (2004). Justification as Truth-Finding Efficiency: How Ockham's Razor Works. Minds and Machines 14 (4).
   I propose that empirical procedures, like computational procedures, are justified in terms of truth-finding efficiency. I contrast the idea with more standard philosophies of science and illustrate it by deriving Ockham's razor from the aim of minimizing dramatic changes of opinion en route to the truth.

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3. Kevin T. Kelly (1999). Iterated Belief Revision, Reliability, and Inductive Amnesia. Erkenntnis 50 (1).
   Belief revision theory concerns methods for reformulating an agent's epistemic state when the agent's beliefs are refuted by new information. The usual guiding principle in the design of such methods is to preserve as much of the agent's epistemic state as possible when the state is revised. Learning theoretic research focuses, instead, on a learning method's reliability or ability to converge to true, informative beliefs over a wide range of possible environments. This paper bridges the two perspectives by assessing the (...) reliability of several proposed belief revision operators. Stringent conceptions of minimal change are shown to occasion a limitation called inductive amnesia: they can predict the future only if they cannot remember the past. Avoidance of inductive amnesia can therefore function as a plausible and hitherto unrecognized constraint on the design of belief revision operators. (shrink)

   Ranking Functions in Epistemology

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4. Kevin T. Kelly, Oliver Schulte & Cory Juhl (1997). Learning Theory and the Philosophy of Science. Philosophy of Science 64 (2):245-267.
   Science, Logic, and Mathematics

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5. Kevin T. Kelly & Oliver Schulte (1995). The Computable Testability of Theories Making Uncomputable Predictions. Erkenntnis 43 (1).
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6. Kevin T. Kelly & Clark Glymour (1992). Inductive Inference From Theory Laden Data. Journal of Philosophical Logic 21 (4).
   Logic and Philosophy of Logic

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7. Kevin T. Kelly (1991). Reichenbach, Induction, and Discovery. Erkenntnis 35 (1-3).
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8. Kevin T. Kelly & Clark Glymour (1990). Theory Discovery From Data with Mixed Quantifiers. Journal of Philosophical Logic 19 (1).
   Convergent realists desire scientific methods that converge reliably to informative, true theories over a wide range of theoretical possibilities. Much attention has been paid to the problem of induction from quantifier-free data. In this paper, we employ the techniques of formal learning theory and model theory to explore the reliable inference of theories from data containing alternating quantifiers. We obtain a hierarchy of inductive problems depending on the quantifier prefix complexity of the formulas that constitute the data, and we provide (...) bounds relating the quantifier prefix complexity of the data to the quantifier prefix complexity of the theories that can be reliably inferred from such data without background knowledge. We also examine the question whether there are theories with mixed quantifiers that can be reliably inferred with closed, universal formulas in the data, but not without. (shrink)

   Logic and Philosophy of Logic

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9. Kevin T. Kelly & Clark Glymour (1989). Convergence to the Truth and Nothing but the Truth. Philosophy of Science 56 (2):185-220.
   Science, Logic, and Mathematics

   Truth, Miscellaneous in Philosophy of Language

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10. Kevin T. Kelly (1987). The Logic of Discovery. Philosophy of Science 54 (3):435-452.
    Science, Logic, and Mathematics

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