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Summary This is a category for debates about chance that do not easily fit into other categories. 
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  1. Marshall Abrams (2012). Mechanistic Probability. Synthese 187 (2):343-375.
    I describe a realist, ontologically objective interpretation of probability, "far-flung frequency (FFF) mechanistic probability". FFF mechanistic probability is defined in terms of facts about the causal structure of devices and certain sets of frequencies in the actual world. Though defined partly in terms of frequencies, FFF mechanistic probability avoids many drawbacks of well-known frequency theories and helps causally explain stable frequencies, which will usually be close to the values of mechanistic probabilities. I also argue that it's a virtue rather than (...)
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  2. David Albert (2010). Probability in the Everett Picture. In Simon Saunders, Jonathan Barrett, Adrian Kent & David Wallace (eds.), Many Worlds?: Everett, Quantum Theory, & Reality. Oup Oxford.
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  3. David Albert (2010). Review of Gerhard Ernst, Andreas Hüttemann (Eds.), Time, Chance, and Reduction: Philosophical Aspects of Statistical Mechanics. [REVIEW] Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews 2010 (9).
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  4. Victoria N. Alexander (2014). Introduction: Toward a Definition of Biosemiosic Chance. Biosemiotics 7 (3):329-334.
    In this special issue, our objective is to clarify what biosemioticians may mean insofar as they claim that living systems are capable of making choices or that biosemiotic interpretations are partially indeterminate. A number of different senses of the term “chance” are discussed as we move toward a consensus. We find that biosemiosic chance may arise out of conditions involving quantum indeterminacy, randomness, deterministic chaos, or unpredictability, but biosemiosic chance is mainly due to the fact that living entities invest their (...)
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  5. Michael J. Almeida (2010). Discussion Note: Chance, Epistemic Probability and Saving Lives: Reply to Bradley. Journal of Ethics and Social Philosophy 2010:1-1.
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  6. Tudor M. Baetu (2014). Chance, Experimental Reproducibility, and Mechanistic Regularity. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 27 (3):253-271.
    Examples from the sciences showing that mechanisms do not always succeed in producing the phenomena for which they are responsible have led some authors to conclude that the regularity requirement can be eliminated from characterizations of mechanisms. In this article, I challenge this conclusion and argue that a minimal form of regularity is inextricably embedded in examples of elucidated mechanisms that have been shown to be causally responsible for phenomena. Examples of mechanistic explanations from the sciences involve mechanisms that have (...)
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  7. D. J. Bartholomew (1995). Choice or Chance? In E. Barker (ed.), Lse on Freedom. Lse Books. 3.
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  8. David J. Bartholomew (2008). God, Chance, and Purpose: Can God Have It Both Ways? Cambridge University Press.
    The thesis of this book is that chance is neither unreal nor non-existent but an integral part of God's creation.
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  9. John Beatty (2006). Chance Variation: Darwin on Orchids. Philosophy of Science 73 (5):629-641.
    I am concerned here with the implications of what Darwin called “chance” or “accidental” variation. In particular, how, according to Darwin, does chance variation affect evolutionary outcomes? To address this question, I will focus on his 1866 book.
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  10. J. Berkovitz (2001). On Chance in Causal Loops. Mind 110 (437):1-23.
    A common line of argument for the impossibility of closed causal loops is that they would involve causal paradoxes. The usual reply is that such loops impose heavy consistency constraints on the nature of causal connections in them; constraints that are overlooked by the impossibility arguments. Hugh Mellor has maintained that arguments for the possibility of causal loops also overlook some constraints, which are related to the chances (single-case, objective probabilities) that causes give to their effects. And he argues that (...)
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  11. Rudolph Berlinger (1991). Signal und Chance. Die Krisis des Autoritätsbewußtseins. Eine Rede. Perspektiven der Philosophie 17:455-461.
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  12. Charles Birch (1974). Chance, Necessity and Purpose. In F. Ayala & T. Dobzhansky (eds.), Studies in the Philosophy of Biology. University of California Press. 225--239.
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  13. David Bohm (1957/1999). Causality and Chance in Modern Physics. University of Pennsylvania Press.
    CHAPTER ONE Causality and Chance in Natural Law. INTRODUCTION IN nature nothing remains constant. Everything is in a perpetual state of transformation, ...
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  14. Darren Bradley (forthcoming). Everettian Confirmation and Sleeping Beauty: Reply to Wilson. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science:axt042.
    In Bradley ([2011b]), I offered an analysis of Sleeping Beauty and the Everettian interpretation of quantum mechanics (EQM). I argued that one can avoid a kind of easy confirmation of EQM by paying attention to observation selection effects, that halfers are right about Sleeping Beauty, and that thirders cannot avoid easy confirmation for the truth of EQM. Wilson ([forthcoming]) agrees with my analysis of observation selection effects in EQM, but goes on to, first, defend Elga’s ([2000]) thirder argument on Sleeping (...)
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  15. Grzegorz Bugajak (2008). On The Notion of Chance and Its Application in Natural Sciences. In Proceedings of the Xxii World Congress of Philosophy. 7-15.
    The notion of chance plays an important role in some philosophical analyses and interpretations of scientific theories. The most obvious examples of that are the theories of evolution and quantum mechanics. This notion, however seems to be notoriously vague. Its application in such analyses, more often than not refers to its common-sense understanding, which, by definition, cannot be sufficient when it comes to sound philosophical interpretations of scientific achievements. The paper attempts at formulating a ‘typology of chance’. It distinguishes eight (...)
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  16. Steven M. Cahn (1967). Chance. In Paul Edwards (ed.), The Encyclopedia of Philosophy. New York, Macmillan. 73--75.
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  17. C. A. Campbell & K. W. Rankin (1963). Choice and Chance. Philosophical Quarterly 13 (50):85.
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  18. Javier Sánchez Cañizares (2009). Bartholomew. DJ, God, Chance and Purpose. Can God Have It Both Ways? Anuario Filosófico 41 (3):693-695.
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  19. James A. Coffman (2014). On the Meaning of Chance in Biology. Biosemiotics 7 (3):377-388.
    Chance has somewhat different meanings in different contexts, and can be taken to be either ontological or epistemological . Here I argue that, whether or not it stems from physical indeterminacy, chance is a fundamental biological reality that is meaningless outside the context of knowledge. To say that something happened by chance means that it did not happen by design. This of course is a cornerstone of Darwin’s theory of evolution: random undirected variation is the creative wellspring upon which natural (...)
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  20. Horacio Arlo Costa & Jeffrey Helzner, Iterated Random Selection as Intermediate Between Risk and Uncertainty. ISIPTA'09 ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS.
  21. Pascal Couillard (2003). From Chance to Choice. Dialogue 42 (2):408-411.
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  22. Jimmy H. Davis & Harry L. Poe (2008). Chance or Dance: An Evaluation of Design. Templeton Press.
    Chance or Dance is ideal for students and general readers interested in understanding how modern science gives evidence for the creation of nature by the God of the Bible.
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  23. David Deutsch (1999). Quantum Theory of Probability and Decisions. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London:3129--37.
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  24. John Dudley (2012). Aristotle's Concept of Chance: Accidents, Cause, Necessity, and Determinism. State University of New York Press.
    The first exhaustive study of Aristotle's concept of chance.
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  25. Antony Eagle (forthcoming). Probability and Randomness. In Alan Hájek & Christopher Hitchcock (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy. Oxford University Press.
  26. Antony Eagle (2014). Is the Past a Matter of Chance? In Alastair Wilson (ed.), Chance and Temporal Asymmetry. Oxford University Press. 126-158.
  27. Antony Eagle (2011). Deterministic Chance. Noûs 45 (2):269 - 299.
    I sketch a new constraint on chance, which connects chance ascriptions closely with ascriptions of ability, and more specifically with 'CAN'-claims. This connection between chance and ability has some claim to be a platitude; moreover, it exposes the debate over deterministic chance to the extensive literature on (in)compatibilism about free will. The upshot is that a prima facie case for the tenability of deterministic chance can be made. But the main thrust of the paper is to draw attention to the (...)
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  28. F. Y. Edgeworth (1922). The Philosophy of Chance. Mind 31 (123):257-283.
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  29. F. Y. Edgeworth (1884). The Philosophy of Chance. Mind 9 (34):223-235.
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  30. Dorothy Edgington (1997). Mellor on Chance and Causation. [REVIEW] British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 48 (3):411-433.
    Mellor's subject is singular causation between facts, expressed ‘E because C’. His central requirement for causation is that the chance that E if C be greater than the chance that E if C: chc(E)>chc(E). The book is as much about chance as it is about causation. I show that his way of distinguishing chc (E) from the traditional notion of conditional chance leaves than him with a problem about the existence of chQ(P) when Q is false (Section 3); and also (...)
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  31. Manfred Eigen (1981/1983). Laws of the Game: How the Principles of Nature Govern Chance. Harper & Row.
    Using game theory and examples of actual games people play, Nobel laureate Manfred Eigen and Ruthild Winkler show how the elements of chance and rules underlie ...
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  32. David Ellerman, On Classical Finite Probability Theory as a Quantum Probability Calculus.
    This paper shows how the classical finite probability theory (with equiprobable outcomes) can be reinterpreted and recast as the quantum probability calculus of a pedagogical or "toy" model of quantum mechanics over sets (QM/sets). There are two parts. The notion of an "event" is reinterpreted from being an epistemological state of indefiniteness to being an objective state of indefiniteness. And the mathematical framework of finite probability theory is recast as the quantum probability calculus for QM/sets. The point is not to (...)
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  33. Brian Ellis, God, Chance and Necessity.
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  34. J. Franklin (1990). The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life Gerd Gigerenzer, Zeno Swijtink, Theodore Porter, Lorraine Daston, John Beatty and Lorenz Krüger, Ideas in Context Series (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1989), Xvii + 340 Pp., £30.00, $44.50. [REVIEW] History of European Ideas 12 (4):572-573.
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  35. James Franklin (1990). The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life. History of European Ideas 12 (4):572-573.
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  36. W. B. Gallie (1959). Values in a Universe of Chance. Philosophical Studies 9:200-202.
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  37. Bill Gerrard (1995). Edgeworth on Chance, Economic Hazard, and Statistics. [REVIEW] British Journal for the History of Science 28 (3):375-376.
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  38. Itzhak Gilboa, Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler (2010). On the Definition of Objective Probabilities by Empirical Similarity. Synthese 172 (1):79 - 95.
    We suggest to define objective probabilities by similarity-weighted empirical frequencies, where more similar cases get a higher weight in the computation of frequencies. This formula is justified intuitively and axiomatically, but raises the question, which similarity function should be used? We propose to estimate the similarity function from the data, and thus obtain objective probabilities. We compare this definition to others, and attempt to delineate the scope of situations in which objective probabilities can be used.
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  39. Carl Ginet (1963). Book Review. Choice and Chance. KW Rankin. [REVIEW] Philosophical Review 72.
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  40. Clark Glymour, Essay Review: Cause and Chance: Causation in an Indeterministic World, Phil Dowe and Paul Noordhof, Eds., Routledge, 2004.
    For most of the contributions to this volume, the project is this: Fill out “Event X is a cause of event Y if and only if……” where the dots on the right are to be filled in by a claims formulated in terms using any of (1) descriptions of possible worlds and their relations; (2) a special predicate, “is a law;” (3) “chances;” and (4) anything else one thinks one needs. The form of analysis is roughly the same as that (...)
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  41. Ian Hacking (1990). The Taming of Chance. Cambridge University Press.
    In this important new study Ian Hacking continues the enquiry into the origins and development of certain characteristic modes of contemporary thought undertaken in such previous works as his best selling Emergence of Probability. Professor Hacking shows how by the late nineteenth century it became possible to think of statistical patterns as explanatory in themselves, and to regard the world as not necessarily deterministic in character. Combining detailed scientific historical research with characteristic philosophic breath and verve, The Taming of Chance (...)
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  42. Alan Hájek (2010). Probability. In Graham Oppy & N. N. Trakakis (eds.), A Companion to Philosophy in Australia and New Zealand. Monash University Publishing.
    The philosophy of probability has been alive and well for several decades in Australia and New Zealand. Some distinctive lines of thought have emerged, resonating with broader themes that have come to be associated with Australasian philosophers: realist/objectivist accounts of various theoretical entities; an ongoing concern with logic, including the development of non­classical logics; and enthusiasm for conceptual analysis, rooted in commonsense but informed by science. In this article I concentrate on work by philosophers on the interpretation of probability, its (...)
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  43. Ned Hall (2004). Two Mistakes About Credence and Chance. Australasian Journal of Philosophy 82 (1):93 – 111.
    David Lewis's influential work on the epistemology and metaphysics of objective chance has convinced many philosophers of the central importance of the following two claims: First, it is a serious cost of reductionist positions about chance (such as that occupied by Lewis) that they are, apparently, forced to modify the Principal Principle--the central principle relating objective chance to rational subjective probability--in order to avoid contradiction. Second, it is a perhaps more serious cost of the rival non-reductionist position that, unlike reductionism, (...)
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  44. Toby Handfield, Genealogical Explanations of Chance and Morals.
    Objective chance and morality are rarely discussed together. In this paper, I argue that there is a surprising similarity in the epistemic standing of our beliefs about both objective chance and objective morality. The key similarity is that both of these sorts of belief are undermined -- in a limited, but important way -- by plausible genealogical accounts of the concepts that feature in these beliefs. The paper presents a brief account of Richard Joyce's evolutionary hypothesis of the genealogy of (...)
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  45. Toby Handfield (2012). Toby Handfield Leaves Nothing To Chance. The Philosophers' Magazine 59 (59):125-126.
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  46. Toby Handfield & Alastair Wilson (2014). Chance and Context. In Alastair Wilson (ed.), Chance and Temporal Asymmetry. Oxford University Press.
    The most familiar philosophical conception of objective chance renders determinism incompatible with non-trivial chances. This conception – associated in particular with the work of David Lewis – is not a good fit with our use of the word ‘chance’ and its cognates in ordinary discourse. In this paper we show how a generalized framework for chance can reconcile determinism with non-trivial chances, and provide for a more charitable interpretation of ordinary chance-talk. According to our proposal, variation in an admissible ‘evidence (...)
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  47. C. Haufe (2013). From Necessary Chances to Biological Laws. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (2):279-295.
    In this article, I propose a new way of thinking about natural necessity and a new way of thinking about biological laws. I suggest that much of the lack of progress in making a positive case for distinctively biological laws is that we’ve been looking for necessity in the wrong place. The trend has been to look for exceptionlessness at the level of the outcomes of biological processes and to build one’s claims about necessity off of that. However, as Beatty (...)
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  48. Eric Hiddleston, Humean Supervenience, Chance, and Magic.
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  49. Carl Hoefer & Alan Hájek (2006). Chance. In Donald Borchert (ed.), Macmillan's Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Macmillan.
    Much is asked of the concept of chance. It has been thought to play various roles, some in tension with or even incompatible with others. Chance has been characterized negatively, as the absence of causation; yet also positively—the ancient Greek τυχη´ reifies it—as a cause of events that are not governed by laws of nature, or as a feature of the laws themselves. Chance events have been understood epistemically as those whose causes are unknown; yet also objectively as a distinct (...)
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  50. Thomas Hofweber (2014). Infinitesimal Chances. Philosophers' Imprint 14 (2).
    It is natural to think that questions in the metaphysics of chance are independent of the mathematical representation of chance in probability theory. After all, chance is a feature of events that comes in degrees and the mathematical representation of chance concerns these degrees but leaves the nature of chance open. The mathematical representation of chance could thus, un-controversially, be taken to be what it is commonly taken to be: a probability measure satisfying Kolmogorov’s axioms. The metaphysical questions about chance (...)
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