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  1. Marshall Abrams, Short-Run Mechanistic Probability.
    This paper sketches a concept of higher-level objective probability (“short-run mechanistic probability”, SRMP) inspired partly by a style of explanation of relative frequencies known as the “method of arbitrary functions”. SRMP has the potential to fill the need for a theory of objective probability which has wide application at higher levels and which gives probability causal connections to observed relative frequency (without making it equivalent to relative frequency). Though this approach provides probabilities on a space of event types, it does (...)
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  2. Max Albert (2005). Should Bayesians Bet Where Frequentists Fear to Tread? Philosophy of Science 72 (4):584-593.
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  3. David Atkinson & Jeanne Peijnenburg (2008). Reichenbach's Posits Reposited. Erkenntnis 69 (1):93 - 108.
    Reichenbach’s use of ‘posits’ to defend his frequentistic theory of probability has been criticized on the grounds that it makes unfalsifiable predictions. The justice of this criticism has blinded many to Reichenbach’s second use of a posit, one that can fruitfully be applied to current debates within epistemology. We show first that Reichenbach’s alternative type of posit creates a difficulty for epistemic foundationalists, and then that its use is equivalent to a particular kind of Jeffrey conditionalization. We conclude that, under (...)
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  4. J. Berkovitz (2001). On Chance in Causal Loops. Mind 110 (437):1-23.
    A common line of argument for the impossibility of closed causal loops is that they would involve causal paradoxes. The usual reply is that such loops impose heavy consistency constraints on the nature of causal connections in them; constraints that are overlooked by the impossibility arguments. Hugh Mellor has maintained that arguments for the possibility of causal loops also overlook some constraints, which are related to the chances (single-case, objective probabilities) that causes give to their effects. And he argues that (...)
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  5. Noëul Bonneuil (2004). Repertoires, Frequentism, and Predictability. History and Theory 43 (1):117–123.
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  6. Antony Eagle (ed.) (2010). Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. Routledge.
    Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings is the first anthology to collect essential readings in this important area of philosophy. Featuring the work of leading philosophers in the field such as Carnap, Hájek, Jeffrey, Joyce, Lewis, Loewer, Popper, Ramsey, van Fraassen, von Mises, and many others, the book looks in depth at the following key topics: subjective probability and credence probability updating: conditionalization and reflection Bayesian confirmation theory classical, logical, and evidential probability frequentism physical probability: propensities and objective chances. The book (...)
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  7. Bas C. Fraassen (1977). Relative Frequencies. Synthese 34 (2):133 - 166.
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  8. Amit Hagar & Giuseppe Sergioli, Counting Steps: A Finitist Interpretation of Objective Probability in Physics.
    We propose a new interpretation of objective deterministic chances in statistical physics based on physical computational complexity. This notion applies to a single physical system (be it an experimental set--up in the lab, or a subsystem of the universe), and quantifies (1) the difficulty to realize a physical state given another, (2) the 'distance' (in terms of physical resources) from a physical state to another, and (3) the size of the set of time--complexity functions that are compatible with the physical (...)
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  9. Alan Hájek (2009). Fifteen Arguments Against Hypothetical Frequentism. Erkenntnis 70 (2):211 - 235.
    This is the sequel to my "Fifteen Arguments Against Finite Frequentism" (Erkenntnis 1997), the second half of a long paper that attacks the two main forms of frequentism about probability. Hypothetical frequentism asserts: The probability of an attribute A in a reference class B is p iff the limit of the relative frequency of A's among the B's would be p if there were an infinite sequence of B's. I offer fifteen arguments against this analysis. I consider various frequentist responses, (...)
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  10. Alan Hájek (2009). Fifteen Arguments Against Hypothetical Frequentism. Erkenntnis 70 (2):211 - 235.
    This is the sequel to my “Fifteen Arguments Against Finite Frequentism” ( Erkenntnis 1997), the second half of a long paper that attacks the two main forms of frequentism about probability. Hypothetical frequentism asserts: The probability of an attribute A in a reference class B is p iff the limit of the relative frequency of A ’s among the B ’s would be p if there were an infinite sequence of B ’s. I offer fifteen arguments against this analysis. I (...)
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  11. Alan Hájek (1996). “Mises Redux” — Redux: Fifteen Arguments Against Finite Frequentism. [REVIEW] Erkenntnis 45 (2-3):209--27.
    According to finite frequentism, the probability of an attribute A in a finite reference class B is the relative frequency of actual occurrences of A within B. I present fifteen arguments against this position.
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  12. Toby Handfield (2012). A Philosophical Guide to Chance: Physical Probability. Cambridge University Press.
    Contents: 1. The concept of chance; 2. The classical picture; 3. Ways the world might be; 4. Possibilities of thought; 5. Chance in phase space; 6. Possibilist theories of chance; 7. Actualist theories of chance; 8. Anti-realist theories of chance; 9. Chance in quantum physics; 10. Chance in branching worlds; 11. Time and evidence; 12. Debunking chance.
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  13. Paul Humphreys (2004). Some Thoughts on Wesley Salmon's Contributions to the Philosophy of Probability. Philosophy of Science 71 (5):942-949.
    Wesley Salmon provided three classic criteria of adequacy for satisfactory interpretations of probability. A fourth criterion is suggested here. A distinction is drawn between frequency‐driven probability models and theory‐driven probability models and it is argued that single case accounts of chance are superior to frequency accounts at least for the latter. Finally it is suggested that theories of chance should be required only to be contingently true, a position which is a natural extension of Salmon's ontic account of probabilistic causality (...)
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  14. Berna Kilinç (2000). Robert Leslie Ellis and John Stuart Mill on the One and the Many of Frequentism. British Journal for the History of Philosophy 8 (2):251-274.
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  15. Berna Kilinç (2000). Robert Leslie Ellis and John Stuart Mill on the One and the Many of Frequentism. British Journal for the History of Philosophy 8 (2):251 – 274.
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  16. Henry E. Kyburg (1976). Chance. Journal of Philosophical Logic 5 (3):355-393.
  17. Isaac Levi (1990). Chance. Philosophical Topics 18 (2):117-149.
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  18. Ittay Nissan-Rozen (2013). Jeffrey Conditionalization, the Principal Principle, the Desire as Belief Thesis, and Adams's Thesis. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (4):axs039.
    I show that David Lewis’s principal principle is not preserved under Jeffrey conditionalization. Using this observation, I argue that Lewis’s reason for rejecting the desire as belief thesis and Adams’s thesis applies also to his own principal principle. 1 Introduction2 Adams’s Thesis, the Desire as Belief Thesis, and the Principal Principle3 Jeffrey Conditionalization4 The Principal Principles Not Preserved under Jeffrey Conditionalization5 Inadmissible Experiences.
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  19. Wesley C. Salmon (1977). Objectively Homogeneous Reference Classes. Synthese 36 (4):399 - 414.
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  20. Wesley C. Salmon (1965). What Happens in the Long Run? Philosophical Review 74 (3):373-378.
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  21. Wesley C. Salmon (1953). The Frequency Interpretation and Antecedent Probabilities. Philosophical Studies 4 (3):44 - 48.
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  22. Lawrence Sklar (1973). Unfair to Frequencies. Journal of Philosophy 70 (2):41-52.
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  23. M. Strevens (1996). Quantum Mechanics and Frequentism: A Reply to Ismael. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 47 (4):575-577.
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  24. Michael Strevens (2011). Probability Out Of Determinism. In Claus Beisbart & Stephan Hartmann (eds.), Probabilities in Physics. Oxford University Press. 339--364.
    This paper offers a metaphysics of physical probability in (or if you prefer, truth conditions for probabilistic claims about) deterministic systems based on an approach to the explanation of probabilistic patterns in deterministic systems called the method of arbitrary functions. Much of the appeal of the method is its promise to provide an account of physical probability on which probability assignments have the ability to support counterfactuals about frequencies. It is argued that the eponymous arbitrary functions are of little philosophical (...)
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  25. Michael Strevens (1996). Quantum Mechanics and Frequentism: A Reply to Ismael. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 47 (4):575-577.
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  26. John Venn (1888/2006). The Logic of Chance. Dover Publications.
    No mathematical background is necessary to appreciate this classic of probability theory, which remains unsurpassed in its clarity, readability, and sheer charm. Its author, British logician John Venn (1834-1923), popularized the famous Venn Diagrams that are commonly used in teaching elementary mathematics.
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  27. Peter M. Williams (1992). Review Essay: A Theory of Logical Frequentism. [REVIEW] Synthese 91 (3):337 - 346.
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