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Philosophy of Probability

Edited by Darrell Rowbottom (Lingnan University)
Assistant editor: Joshua Luczak (University of Western Ontario, Georgetown University)
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  1. added 2016-07-20
    Kenny Easwaran, Luke Fenton-Glynn, Christopher Hitchcock & Joel D. Velasco (2016). Updating on the Credences of Others: Disagreement, Agreement, and Synergy. Philosophers' Imprint 16 (11).
    We introduce a family of rules for adjusting one’s credences in response to learning the credences of others. These rules have a number of desirable features. 1. They yield the posterior credences that would result from updating by standard Bayesian conditionalization on one’s peers’ reported credences if one’s likelihood function takes a particular simple form. 2. In the simplest form, they are symmetric among the agents in the group. 3. They map neatly onto the familiar Condorcet voting results. 4. They (...)
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  2. added 2016-07-20
    Mikito Kobayashi & Satoshi Tojo (2009). Agent Communication for Dynamic Belief Update. Transactions of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence 24:314-321.
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  3. added 2016-07-20
    Frank Arntzenius (2003). Some Problems for Conditionalization and Reflection. Journal of Philosophy 100 (7):356-370.
  4. added 2016-07-20
    Mark Lange (1999). Calibration and the Epistemological Role of Bayesian Conditionalization. Journal of Philosophy 96 (6):294.
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  5. added 2016-07-20
    Jon Dorling (1992). Bayesian Conditionalization Resolves Positivist/Realist Disputes. Journal of Philosophy 89 (7):362.
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  6. added 2016-07-18
    John-Michael Kuczynski (2016). Determinism, Supervenience, and Probabilistic Inference. Amazon Digital Services LLC.
    This volume identifies the different ways in which one event can compel the occurrence of another event and on this basis identifies important facts about the nature of probability and probabilistic inference.
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  7. added 2016-06-27
    Wlodek Rabinowicz, Safeguards of a Disunified Mind.
    The papers focuses on pragmatic arguments for various rationality constraints on a decision maker’s state of mind: on her beliefs or preferences. An argument of this kind typically targets constraint violations. It purports to show that a violator of a given constraint can be confronted with a decision problem in which she will act to her guaranteed disadvantage. Dramatically put, she can be exploited by a clever bookie who doesn’t know more than the agent herself. Examples of pragmatic arguments of (...)
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  8. added 2016-06-21
    Charlotte Werndl, Determinism.
    This article focuses on three recent discussions on determinism in the philosophy of science. First, determinism and predictability will be discussed. Then, second, the paper turns to the topic of determinism, indeterminism, observational equivalence and randomness. Finally, third, there will be a discussion about deterministic probabilities. The paper will end with a conclusion.
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  9. added 2016-06-12
    Michael Starks, What Do Paraconsistent, Undecidable, Random, Computable and Incomplete Mean? A Review of Godel's Way: Exploits Into an Undecidable World by Gregory Chaitin, Francisco A Doria , Newton C.A. Da Costa 160p (2012).
    In ‘Godel’s Way’ three eminent scientists discuss issues such as undecidability, incompleteness, randomness, computability and paraconsistency. I approach these issues from the Wittgensteinian viewpoint that there are two basic issues which have completely different solutions. There are the scientific or empirical issues, which are facts about the world that need to be investigated observationally and philosophical issues as to how language can be used intelligibly (which include certain questions in mathematics and logic), which need to be decided by looking at (...)
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  10. added 2016-06-02
    Anna Mahtani (2016). Imprecise Probabilities and Unstable Betting Behaviour. Noûs 50 (3).
    Many have argued that a rational agent's attitude towards a proposition may be better represented by a probability range than by a single number. I show that in such cases an agent will have unstable betting behaviour, and so will behave in an unpredictable way. I use this point to argue against a range of responses to the ‘two bets’ argument for sharp probabilities.
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  11. added 2016-05-17
    Paul D. Thorn & Gerhard Schurz (forthcoming). Qualitative Probabilistic Inference Under Varied Entropy Levels. Journal of Applied Logic.
    In previous work, we studied four well known systems of qualitative probabilistic inference, and presented data from computer simulations in an attempt to illustrate the performance of the systems. These simulations evaluated the four systems in terms of their tendency to license inference to accurate and informative conclusions, given incomplete information about a randomly selected probability distribution. In our earlier work, the procedure used in generating the unknown probability distribution (representing the true stochastic state of the world) tended to yield (...)
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  12. added 2016-05-11
    Martin Smith (forthcoming). Intuitionistic Probability and the Bayesian Objection to Dogmatism. Synthese:1-13.
    Given a few assumptions, the probability of a conjunction is raised, and the probability of its negation is lowered, by conditionalising upon one of the conjuncts. This simple result appears to bring Bayesian confirmation theory into tension with the prominent dogmatist view of perceptual justification – a tension often portrayed as a kind of ‘Bayesian objection’ to dogmatism. In a recent paper, David Jehle and Brian Weatherson observe that, while this crucial result holds within classical probability theory, it fails within (...)
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  13. added 2016-05-07
    Luca Corti (2016). Hegel's Philosophical Psychology.
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  14. added 2016-05-03
    Anna Szyrwińska (2015). Relacja między nauką o logicznych możliwościach a zasadą zachowania energii. Rola badań Huygensa i Leibniza dla nowożytnej refleksji nad wolnością woli. IDEA – Studia Nad Strukturą I Rozwojem Pojęć Filozoficznych:191-202.
    The article investigates the relationship between Leibniz’s and Huygens’ theory of possibility and the principle of conservation of energy. It assumes that their criticisms of Cartesian views concerning those questions as well as their own achievements contributed to the formation of a new metaphysical basis for modern discussions on the freedom of the will. There are especially two problems whose role is crucial in this context, namely the question of God’s knowledge of future conditionals (contingentia futura) and the mind-body distinction.
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