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Philosophy of Probability

Edited by Darrell Rowbottom (Lingnan University)
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  1. added 2014-04-09
    David Chalmers (forthcoming). Frontloading and Fregean Sense: Reply to Neta, Schroeter, and Stanley. Analysis.
    A reply to Ram Neta, Laura Schroeter, and Jason Stanley, for a symposium in Analysis on Constructing the World.
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  2. added 2014-04-07
    Paul D. Thorn (2013). Cognitivist Probabilism. In Vit Punochar Petr Svarny (ed.), The Logica yearbook 2012. College Publications. 201-213.
    In this article, I introduce the term “cognitivism” as a name for the thesis that degrees of belief are equivalent to full beliefs about truth-valued propositions. The thesis (of cognitivism) that degrees of belief are equivalent to full beliefs is equivocal, inasmuch as different sorts of equivalence may be postulated between degrees of belief and full beliefs. The simplest sort of equivalence (and the sort of equivalence that I discuss here) identifies having a given degree of belief with having a (...)
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  3. added 2014-04-03
    James Christopher Westland & Manfred Kochen (1989). Classical Conditioning: A Manifestation of Bayesian Neural Learning. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 12 (1):160.
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  4. added 2014-03-31
    Jonathan SchaAer, Principled Chances.
    There are at least three core principles that define the chance role: ill the Principal Principle, l21 the Basic Chance Principle, and l31 the Humean Principle. These principles seem mutually incompatible. At least, no extant account of chance meets more than one of them. I ofier an account of chance which meets all three: L~-chance. So the good news is that L~-chance meets ill — l31. The bad news is that L~-chance turns out unlawful and unstable. But perhaps this is (...)
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  5. added 2014-03-31
    Davide P. Cervone, William V. Gehrlein, William S. Zwicker, Which Scoring Rule Maximizes Condorcet, Marcello Basili, Alain Chateauneuf & Fulvio Fontini (2005). Mohammed Abdellaoui/Editorial Statement 1–2 Mohammed Abdellaoui and Peter P. Wakker/The Likelihood Method for Decision Under Uncertainty 3–76 AAJ Marley and R. Duncan Luce/Independence Properties Vis--Vis Several Utility Representations 77–143. [REVIEW] Theory and Decision 58:409-410.
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  6. added 2014-03-31
    Frank Arntzenius (2003). Self-Locating Beliefs, Reflection, Conditionalization and Dutch Books. Journal of Philosophy 100:356-370.
  7. added 2014-03-31
    P. Rawling (2000). The Logical Status of Conditionalization and its Role in Confirmation Commentary. Poznan Studies in the Philosophy of the Sciences and the Humanities 71:77-94.
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  8. added 2014-03-31
    Susan Vineberg (2000). The Logical Status of Conditionalization and its Role in Confirmation. Poznan Studies in the Philosophy of the Sciences and the Humanities 71:77-94.
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  9. added 2014-03-31
    Bas C. Van Fraassen (1999). A New Argument for Conditionalization. Topoi 18:93-96.
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  10. added 2014-03-31
    Howard Smokler (1991). A Bayesian Theory of Thought. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (3):505.
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  11. added 2014-03-29
    Wide Content Individualism (1998). Calibration and the Epistemological Role of Bayesian Conditionalization, Marc Lange. Mind 107 (427).
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  12. added 2014-03-27
    Daniel Jeremy Singer (forthcoming). Sleeping Beauty Should Be Imprecise. Synthese:1-14.
    The traditional solutions to the Sleeping Beauty problem say that Beauty should have either a sharp 1/3 or sharp 1/2 credence that the coin flip was heads when she wakes. But Beauty’s evidence is incomplete so that it doesn’t warrant a precise credence, I claim. Instead, Beauty ought to have a properly imprecise credence when she wakes. In particular, her representor ought to assign R(Heads)=[0,1/2]. I show, perhaps surprisingly, that this solution can account for the many of the intuitions that (...)
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  13. added 2014-03-25
    Gerd Gigerenzer (1996). Why Do Frequency Formats Improve Bayesian Reasoning? Cognitive Algorithms Work on Information, Which Needs Representation. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19 (1):23.
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  14. added 2014-03-18
    Paul D. Thorn (2007). Three Problems of Direct Inference. Dissertation, University of Arizona
  15. added 2014-03-18
    Liqi Zhu & Gerd Gigerenzer (2006). Children Can Solve Bayesian Problems: The Role of Representation in Mental Computation. Cognition 98 (3):287-308.
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  16. added 2014-03-12
    Weng Hong Tang (forthcoming). Belief and Cognitive Limitations. Philosophical Studies.
    A number of philosophers have argued that it is hard for finite agents like us to reason and make decisions relying solely on our credences and preferences. They hold that for us to cope with our cognitive limitations, we need binary beliefs as well. For they think that such beliefs, by disposing us to treat certain propositions as true, help us cut down on the number of possibilities we need to consider when we reason. But using Ross and Schroeder (2012) (...)
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  17. added 2014-03-11
    Aaron Norby (forthcoming). Uncertainty Without All the Doubt. Mind and Language.
    I investigate whether degreed beliefs are able to play the predictive, explanatory, and modeling roles that they are frequently taken to play. The investigation focuses on evidence – both from sources familiar in epistemology as well as recent work in behavioral economics and cognitive psychology – of variability in agents' apparent degrees of belief. Although such variability has been noticed before, there has been little philosophical discussion of its breadth or of the psychological mechanisms underlying it. Once these are appreciated, (...)
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  18. added 2014-03-11
    Aaron Norby (2014). Against Fragmentation. Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 2 (4).
    I criticize the idea that theories of ‘fragmented’ or ‘compartmentalized’ belief (as found in, e.g., Lewis 1982, Egan 2008) can help to account for the puzzling phenomena they are often taken to account for. After introducing fragmentationalism and a paradigm case that purportedly motivates it, I criticize the view primarily on the grounds that the models and explanations it offers are at best trivial—as witnessed by examples of over-generation—and should be seen as merely re-describing in figurative terms the phenomena it (...)
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  19. added 2014-03-09
    Sharon Goldwater, Thomas L. Griffiths & Mark Johnson (2009). A Bayesian Framework for Word Segmentation: Exploring the Effects of Context. Cognition 112 (1):21-54.
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  20. added 2014-03-09
    Quentin J. M. Huys & Peter Dayan (2009). A Bayesian Formulation of Behavioral Control. Cognition 113 (3):314-328.
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  21. added 2014-03-06
    Douglas M. Kline (2010). Two‐Group Classification Using the Bayesian Data Reduction Algorithm. Complexity 15 (3):43-49.
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  22. added 2014-03-06
    Michael D. Lee (2010). Emergent and Structured Cognition in Bayesian Models: Comment on Griffiths Et Al. And McClelland Et Al. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 14 (8):345-346.
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  23. added 2014-03-06
    John K. Kruschke (2010). What to Believe: Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 14 (7):293-300.
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  24. added 2014-03-04
    Amy Perfors, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Thomas L. Griffiths & Fei Xu (2011). A Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Models of Cognitive Development. Cognition 120 (3):302-321.
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  25. added 2014-03-04
    Colin Dawson & LouAnn Gerken (2011). When Global Structure “Explains Away” Local Grammar: A Bayesian Account of Rule-Induction in Tone Sequences. Cognition 120 (3):350-359.
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  26. added 2014-03-04
    Patrizio E. Tressoldi (2011). Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences. Frontiers in Psychology 2.
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  27. added 2014-03-04
    Richard N. Henson, Daniel G. Wakeman, Vladimir Litvak & Karl J. Friston (2011). A Parametric Empirical Bayesian Framework for the EEG/MEG Inverse Problem: Generative Models for Multi-Subject and Multi-Modal Integration. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 5.
  28. added 2014-03-04
    Michael D. Lee & Barbara W. Sarnecka (2011). Number-Knower Levels in Young Children: Insights From Bayesian Modeling. Cognition 120 (3):391-402.
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  29. added 2014-02-16
    Jeffrey Conditionalization (2013). Cognitive Penetration 12—16 (See Also 'Objections to Dogmatism and/or Phenomenal Conservatism'). In Chris Tucker (ed.), Seemings and Justification: New Essays on Dogmatism and Phenomenal Conservatism. Oup Usa. 2--355.
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  30. added 2014-02-16
    Christopher A. Fuchs & Rüdiger Schack (2012). Bayesian Conditioning, the Reflection Principle, and Quantum Decoherence. In. In Yemima Ben-Menahem & Meir Hemmo (eds.), Probability in Physics. Springer. 233--247.
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  31. added 2014-02-16
    Tomasz Placek (1998). Łukasiewicz's Logical Probability and a Puzzle About Conditionalization. In. In Katarzyna Kijania-Placek & Jan Woleński (eds.), The Lvov-Warsaw School and Contemporary Philosophy. Kluwer Academic Publishers. 337--340.
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  32. added 2014-02-16
    H. Haken (1993). Application of the Maximum Entropy Principle to Nonlinear Systems Far From Equilibrium. In E. T. Jaynes, Walter T. Grandy & Peter W. Milonni (eds.), Physics and Probability: Essays in Honor of Edwin T. Jaynes. Cambridge University Press. 239.
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  33. added 2014-01-31
    Clark Glymour (2014). Poincaré's Probabilities, Kantified, Post-Modernized. Biological Theory 9 (1):113-114.
  34. added 2014-01-28
    Antony Eagle (forthcoming). Is the Past a Matter of Chance? In Alastair Wilson (ed.), Chance and Temporal Asymmetry. Oxford University Press.
  35. added 2014-01-27
    Harrison C. White (forthcoming). Network Switchings and Bayesian Forks: Reconstructing the Social and Behavioral Sciences. Social Research.
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  36. added 2014-01-27
    Arthur Isak Applbaum (2014). Bayesian Inference and Contractualist Justification on Interstate 95. In Andrew I. Cohen & Christopher H. Wellman (eds.), Contemporary Debates in Applied Ethics. Wiley Blackwell. 219.
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  37. added 2014-01-27
    Gerhard Schurz (2014). Bayesian Pseudo-Confirmation, Use-Novelty, and Genuine Confirmation. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 45:87-96.
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  38. added 2014-01-27
    Ansgar D. Endress (2014). How Are Bayesian Models Really Used? Reply To. Cognition 130 (1):81-84.
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  39. added 2014-01-27
    Thomas Trappenberg & Paul Hollensen (2013). Sparse Coding and Challenges for Bayesian Models of the Brain. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 36 (3):232-233.
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  40. added 2014-01-27
    Daniel Goldreich & Jonathan Tong (2013). Prediction, Postdiction, and Perceptual Length Contraction: A Bayesian Low-Speed Prior Captures the Cutaneous Rabbit and Related Illusions. Frontiers in Psychology 4.
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  41. added 2014-01-27
    Stanley Shostak (2013). The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant From Two Centuries of Controversy. The European Legacy 18 (7):965-966.
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  42. added 2014-01-27
    Rhodes Darren & Di Luca Massimiliano (2013). Bayesian Perception of Isochronous Rhythms. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 7.
  43. added 2014-01-27
    Patricia Adair Gowaty & Stephen P. Hubbell (2013). Bayesian Animals Sense Ecological Constraints to Predict Fitness and Organize Individually Flexible Reproductive Decisions. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 36 (3):215-216.
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  44. added 2014-01-27
    B.��th Rasmus (2013). Hierarchical Bayesian Models for Analysis of Isochronous Sensorimotor Synchronization Data. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 7.
  45. added 2014-01-27
    Prada Laura (2011). A Bayesian Model of Human Sensorimotor Control During Task Switching. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 5.
  46. added 2014-01-27
    Makeig Scott (2011). Analysis of Neuronal Source Dynamics and Connectivity During Seizure Using Adaptive Vector Autoregressive Models, Sparse Bayesian Learning, Independent Component Analysis, and Electrocorticography. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 5.
  47. added 2014-01-27
    Kiebel Stefan (2011). Joint Online Recognition of Speech and Speaker Using Bayesian Inference for Multi-Scale Nonlinear Dynamical Systems. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 5.
  48. added 2014-01-27
    Iglesias Jaime (2011). Brain Mechanisms for Face-Feature Versus Face-Occupation Retrieval: A Study of ERPs with Neural Source Reconstruction Using Bayesian Model Averaging. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 5.
  49. added 2014-01-27
    Makeig Scott (2011). A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Model for Multi-Subject EEG Source Dynamics and Effective Connectivity. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 5.
  50. added 2014-01-27
    Friston Karl (2011). Active Inference, Free-Energy and the Bayesian Brain. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 5.
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