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Philosophy of Probability

Edited by Darrell Rowbottom (Lingnan University)
Assistant editor: Joshua Luczak (University of Western Ontario)
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  1. added 2015-04-24
    Philippe Gagnon (forthcoming). Review of Amir D. Aczel, Why Science Does Not Disprove God (New York: W. Morrow, 2014). [REVIEW] ESSSAT News and Reviews 25 (2).
    Review of the book by mathematician and science writer Amir Aczel, Why Science does not Disprove God, recently reissued in paperback, with a focus on the chapters on mathematics and God, and criticisms from the standpoint of the epistemology of the science and religion dialogue.
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  2. added 2015-04-24
    Jack Copeland & Diane Proudfoot (2003). The Conjunction Fallacy. Logique Et Analyse 46.
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  3. added 2015-04-16
    Conor Mayo-Wilson & Gregory Wheeler (forthcoming). Scoring Imprecise Credences: A Mildly Immodest Proposal. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research.
  4. added 2015-04-15
    H. Orri Stefánsson & Richard Bradley (forthcoming). How Valuable Are Chances? Philosophy of Science.
  5. added 2015-04-13
    Joseph Ellin (unknown). Monty Hall No Newcomb Problem. Proceedings of the Heraclitean Society 17.
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  6. added 2015-04-13
    Jason Konek & Ben Levinstein, The Foundations of Epistemic Decision Theory.
    According to accuracy-first epistemology, accuracy is the fundamental epistemic good. Epistemic norms — Probabilism, Conditionalization, the Principal Principle, etc. — have their binding force in virtue of helping to secure this good. To make this idea precise, accuracy-firsters invoke Epistemic Decision Theory (EpDT) to determine which epistemic policies are the best means toward the end of accuracy. Hilary Greaves and others have recently challenged the tenability of this programme. Their arguments purport to show that EpDT encourages obviously epistemically irrational behavior. (...)
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  7. added 2015-04-13
    Alon Drory (2015). Failure and Uses of Jaynes’ Principle of Transformation Groups. Foundations of Physics 45 (4):439-460.
    Bertand’s paradox is a fundamental problem in probability that casts doubt on the applicability of the indifference principle by showing that it may yield contradictory results, depending on the meaning assigned to “randomness”. Jaynes claimed that symmetry requirements solve the paradox by selecting a unique solution to the problem. I show that this is not the case and that every variant obtained from the principle of indifference can also be obtained from Jaynes’ principle of transformation groups. This is because the (...)
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  8. added 2015-04-13
    Aaron Bronfman (2015). Deference and Description. Philosophical Studies 172 (5):1333-1353.
    Consider someone whom you know to be an expert about some issue. She knows at least as much as you do and reasons impeccably. The issue is a straightforward case of statistical inference that raises no deep problems of epistemology. You happen to know the expert’s opinion on this issue. Should you defer to her by adopting her opinion as your own? An affirmative answer may appear mandatory. But this paper argues that a crucial factor in answering this question is (...)
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  9. added 2015-04-13
    Adam Rieger Jake Chandler (2011). Self‐Respect Regained. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 111 (2pt2):311-318.
    In a recent article, David Christensen casts aspersions on a restricted version of van Fraassen's Reflection principle, which he dubs ‘Self‐Respect’. Rejecting two possible arguments for sr, he concludes that the principle does not constitute a requirement of rationality. In this paper we argue that not only has Christensen failed to make a case against the aforementioned arguments, but that considerations pertaining to Moore's paradox indicate that sr, or at the very least a mild weakening thereof, is indeed a plausible (...)
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  10. added 2015-04-13
    Arthur Falk (1993). Summer 1991: The "Monty Hall" Problem; Fall 1993: The Two Envelopes Puzzle; And Now: Doomsday. Proceedings of the Heraclitean Society 17:64.
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  11. added 2015-04-10
    Max Baker-Hytch & Matthew A. Benton (forthcoming). Defeatism Defeated. Philosophical Perspectives.
    Many epistemologists are enamored with a defeat condition on knowledge. In this paper we present some implementation problems for defeatism, understood along either internalist or externalist lines. We then propose that one who accepts a knowledge norm of belief, according to which one ought to believe only what one knows, can explain away much of the motivation for defeatism. This is an important result, because on the one hand it respects the plausibility of the intuitions about defeat shared by many (...)
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  12. added 2015-04-06
    Paul M. Näger (forthcoming). The Causal Problem of Entanglement. Synthese:1-29.
    This paper expounds that besides the well-known spatio-temporal problem there is a causal problem of entanglement: even when one neglects spatio-temporal constraints, the peculiar statistics of EPR/B experiment is inconsistent with usual principles of causal explanation as stated by the theory of causal Bayes nets. The conflict amounts to a dilemma that either there are uncaused correlations or there are caused independences . I argue that the central ideas of causal explanations can be saved if one accepts the latter horn (...)
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  13. added 2015-04-06
    Lane DesAutels (forthcoming). Toward a Propensity Interpretation of Stochastic Mechanism for the Life Sciences. Synthese:1-33.
    In what follows, I suggest that it makes good sense to think of the truth of the probabilistic generalizations made in the life sciences as metaphysically grounded in stochastic mechanisms in the world. To further understand these stochastic mechanisms, I take the general characterization of mechanism offered by MDC :1–25, 2000) and explore how it fits with several of the going philosophical accounts of chance: subjectivism, frequentism, Lewisian best-systems, and propensity. I argue that neither subjectivism, frequentism, nor a best-system-style interpretation (...)
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  14. added 2015-04-06
    Tommaso Flaminio, Lluis Godo & Hykel Hosni, Coherence in the Aggregate: A Betting Method for Belief Functions on Many-Valued Events.
    Betting methods, of which de Finetti's Dutch Book is by far the most well-known, are uncertainty modelling devices which accomplish a twofold aim. Whilst providing an interpretation of the relevant measure of uncertainty, they also provide a formal definition of coherence. The main purpose of this paper is to put forward a betting method for belief functions on MV-algebras of many-valued events which allows us to isolate the corresponding coherence criterion, which we term coherence in the aggregate. Our framework generalises (...)
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  15. added 2015-04-06
    Alena Vencovská & Jeff B. Paris (2015). The Twin Continua of Inductive Methods. [REVIEW] In Andrés Villaveces, Roman Kossak, Juha Kontinen & Åsa Hirvonen (eds.), Logic Without Borders: Essays on Set Theory, Model Theory, Philosophical Logic and Philosophy of Mathematics. De Gruyter. 355-366.
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  16. added 2015-04-06
    Jon Williamson, Deliberation, Judgement and the Nature of Evidence.
    A normative Bayesian theory of deliberation and judgement requires a procedure for merging the evidence of a collection of agents. In order to provide such a procedure, one needs to ask what the evidence is that grounds Bayesian probabilities. After finding fault with several views on the nature of evidence , it is argued that evidence is whatever is rationally taken for granted. This view is shown to have consequences for an account of merging evidence, and it is argued that (...)
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  17. added 2015-04-06
    Benjamin Lennertz (2015). Quantificational Credences. Philosophers' Imprint 15 (9).
    In addition to full beliefs, agents have attitudes of varying confidence, or credences. For instance, I do not believe that the Boston Red Sox will win the American League East this year, but I am at least a little bit confident that they will – i.e. I have a positive credence that they will. It is also common to think that agents have conditional credences. For instance, I am very confident – i.e. have a conditional credence of very-likely strength – (...)
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  18. added 2015-04-06
    Lawrence Sklar (2000). Probability and Confirmation.
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  19. added 2015-04-06
    Lawrence Sklar (2000). Bayesian and Non-Inducive Methods.
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  20. added 2015-04-06
    Domenico Costantini, Maria Carla Galavotti & Richard C. Jeffrey (1997). Probability, Dynamics, and Causality Essays in Honour of Richard C. Jeffrey.
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  21. added 2015-04-06
    J. R. Lucas (1977). HACKING, I. "The Emergence of Probability". [REVIEW] Mind 86:466.
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  22. added 2015-04-05
    Jiji Zhang & Peter Spirtes (forthcoming). The Three Faces of Faithfulness. Synthese:1-17.
    In the causal inference framework of Spirtes, Glymour, and Scheines , inferences about causal relationships are made from samples from probability distributions and a number of assumptions relating causal relations to probability distributions. The most controversial of these assumptions is the Causal Faithfulness Assumption, which roughly states that if a conditional independence statement is true of a probability distribution generated by a causal structure, it is entailed by the causal structure and not just for particular parameter values. In this paper (...)
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  23. added 2015-04-05
    Howard Hodgens (2014). Betting on Famine: Why the World Still Goes Hungry [Book Review]. Australian Humanist, The 115:22.
    Hodgens, Howard Review of: Betting on famine: Why the world still goes hungry, by Jean Ziegler, The New Press $34.99.
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  24. added 2015-04-05
    MiklÓs RÉdei (2010). Kolmogorovian Censorship Hypothesis For General Quantum Probability Theories. Manuscrito 33 (1):365-380.
    It is shown that the Kolmogorovian Censorship Hypothesis, according to which quantum probabilities are interpretable as conditional probabilities in a classical probability measure space, holds not only for Hilbert space quantum mechanics but for general quantum probability theories based on the theory of von Neumann algebras.
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  25. added 2015-04-05
    Winfried Loffler (2009). Modern Cosmology - a Cognitive Approach God? Philosophy and Culture 36 (8):157-171.
    From cosmology to the fact that the existence of God and nature, to address these issues, the development of two kinds of controversial contemporary line of argument, I compared and assessed in this paper: the physical cosmology as a starting argument and the natural design as a starting point of the argument. I made ​​some preliminary assessment of the court. The results showed that the Big Bang argument are quite reasonable, however, found the natural design of the demonstration clearly insufficient. (...)
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  26. added 2015-04-05
    Mark Alfano (2007). A Critical Discussion Of The Compatibility Of Bayesianism And Inference To The Best Explanation. Philosophical Writings 34 (1).
    In this paper I critique Peter Lipton’s attempt to deal with the threat of Bayesianism to the normative aspect of his project in Inference to the Best Explanation. I consider the five approaches Lipton proposes for reconciling the doxastic recommendations of Inference to the Best Explanation with BA’s: IBE gives a ‘boost’ to the posterior probability of particularly ‘lovely’ hypotheses after the Bayesian calculation is performed; IBE helps us to set the likelihood of evidence on a given hypothesis; IBE helps (...)
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  27. added 2015-04-05
    Dan O'brien (2004). Robert J. Fogelin, A Defense of Hume on Miracles. [REVIEW] Philosophy in Review 24:100-102.
  28. added 2015-04-05
    Clark Glymour (2003). The Mind's Arrows: Bayes Nets and Graphical Causal Models in Psychology. Erkenntnis 59 (1):136-140.
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  29. added 2015-04-05
    Nick Bostrom & Milan M. Cirković (2003). The Doomsday Argument and the Self–Indication Assumption: Reply to Olum. Philosophical Quarterly 53 (210):83-91.
    In a recent paper in this journal, Ken Olum attempts to refute the doomsday argument by appealing to the self–indication assumption (SIA) that your very existence gives you reason to think that there are many observers. Unlike earlier users of this strategy, Olum tries to counter objections that have been made against (SIA). We argue that his defence of (SIA) is unsuccessful. This does not, however, mean that one has to accept the doomsday argument (or the other counter–intuitive results that (...)
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  30. added 2015-04-05
    Alan H.Ájek (1998). Agnosticism Meets Bayesianism. Analysis 58 (3):199-206.
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  31. added 2015-04-05
    Bas C. van Fraassen (1994). Science, Probability, and the Proposition. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1994:339-348.
    In a traditional view of science we come to fully believe the main accepted theories . Some of the hypotheses "possible for all that science tells us" seem more likely than others: enter probability as grading the possibilities left open. Probabilism contends with this tradition. Richard Jeffrey told us never to resolve doubt but only to quantify it, and to give maximal probability only to tautologies. Despite severe difficulties, I shall argue that the traditional view is reconcilable with probabilism. I (...)
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  32. added 2015-04-05
    Paul Weirich (1992). Richard Jeffrey, Probability and the Art of Judgment. [REVIEW] Philosophy in Review 12:333-335.
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  33. added 2015-04-05
    William Rottschaefer (1991). John Leslie, Universes. [REVIEW] Philosophy in Review 11:204-207.
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  34. added 2015-04-05
    Jan Narveson (1990). Jeffrey Olen, Moral Freedom. [REVIEW] Philosophy in Review 10:152-154.
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  35. added 2015-04-05
    J. van Brakel (1988). Is Our Universe a Mere Fluke? The Cosmological Argument and Spinning the Universes. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:75-82.
    Recent discussions about the anthropic principle and the argument from design can perhaps be summarized as follows : The world is very unusual, so it must have been made by an intelligent creator. The world is very unusual, but unusual things do occur by chance. Both and , in their ordinary interpretations, have been labelled probabilistic fallacies. In my paper I will discuss in particular the following two aspects: The contemporary relevance of Cicero's discussions on chance. The fact that any (...)
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  36. added 2015-04-05
    Bas C. van Fraassen (1986). A Demonstration of the Jeffrey Conditionalization Rule. Erkenntnis 24 (1):17-24.
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  37. added 2015-04-05
    Kelly James Clark (1985). Probabilistic Confirmation Theory and the Existence of God. Dissertation, University of Notre Dame
    A recent development in the philosophy of religion has been the attempt to justify belief in God using Bayesian confirmation theory. My dissertation critically discusses two prominent spokesmen for this approach--Richard Swinburne and J. L. Mackie. Using probabilistic confirmation theory, these philosophers come to wildly divergent conclusions with respect to the hypothesis of theism; Swinburne contends that the evidence raises the overall probability of the hypothesis of theism, whereas Mackie argues that the evidence disconfirms the existence of God. After a (...)
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  38. added 2015-04-05
    Richard Otte (1985). John Earman, Ed., Testing Scientific Theories. [REVIEW] Philosophy in Review 5:161-163.
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  39. added 2015-04-05
    Arthur Falk (1984). Theaetetus Invents Dutch Books. Proceedings of the Heraclitean Society 9.
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  40. added 2015-04-05
    R. I. G. Hughes & Bas C. van Fraassen (1984). Symmetry Arguments in Probability Kinematics. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1984:851-869.
    Probability kinematics is the theory of how subjective probabilities change with time, in response to certain constraints . Rules are classified by the imposed constraints for which the rules prescribe a procedure for updating one's opinion. The first is simple conditionalization , and the second Jeffrey conditionalization . It is demonstrated by a symmetry argument that these rules are the unique admissible rules for those constraints, and moreover, that any probability kinematic rule must be equivalent to a conditionalization preceded by (...)
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  41. added 2015-04-05
    A. F. Chalmers (1981). Howson, Colin , "Method and Appraisal in the Physical Sciences". [REVIEW] Erkenntnis 16:167.
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  42. added 2015-04-05
    Larry Laudan (1978). Hacking, Ian, "The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference". [REVIEW] Erkenntnis 13:417.
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  43. added 2015-04-05
    F. C. Benenson (1976). Probability, Frequency and Evidence.
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  44. added 2015-04-05
    M. Ruse (1969). Confirmation and Falsification of Theories of Evolution. Scientia 63:329.
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  45. added 2015-04-05
    I. J. Good, Ian Hacking, R. C. Jeffrey & Håkan Törnebohm (1966). The Estimation of Probabilities: An Essay on Modern Bayesian Methods. Synthese 16 (2):234-244.
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  46. added 2015-04-05
    D. Van Dantzig (1950). Carnap's Foundation of Probability Theory. Synthese 8 (10):459-470.
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  47. added 2015-04-05
    Williams Williams (1950). EICHENBACH'S The Theory of Probability. [REVIEW] Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 11:252.
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  48. added 2015-04-05
    S. E. Toulmin & L. J. Russell (1950). Probability. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 24:27-74.
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  49. added 2015-04-05
    Oliver Lodge (1905). Life: A Hypothesis and Two Analogies. Hibbert Journal 4:100.
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  50. added 2015-04-05
    A. Smith (1896). Betting and Gambling, a Paper.
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