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Philosophy of Probability

Edited by Darrell Rowbottom (Lingnan University)
Assistant editor: Joshua Luczak (University of Western Ontario)
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  1. K. Abt (1987). Symposium on “the Epistemical Application of the Concept of Probability in the Empirical Sciences”. Erkenntnis 26 (3):423-427.
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    Decision Theory
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  2. Ernest W. Adams (1986). On the Logic of High Probability. Journal of Philosophical Logic 15 (3):255 - 279.
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  3. Max Albert (1992). Die Falsifikation Statistischer Hypothesen. Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 23 (1):1 - 32.
    The Falsification of Statistical Hypotheses. It is widely held that falsification of statistical hypotheses is impossible. This view is supported by an analysis of the most important theories of statistical testing: these theories are not compatible with falsificationism. On the other hand, falsificationism yields a basically viable solution to the problems of explanation, prediction and theory testing in a deterministic context. The present paper shows how to introduce the falsificationist solution into the realm of statistics. This is done mainly by (...)
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  4. Max Albert (1992). Die Falsifikation Statistischer HypothesenThe Falsification of Statistical Hypotheses. Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 23 (1):1-32.
    It is widely held that falsification of statistical hypotheses is impossible. This view is supported by an analysis of the most important theories of statistical testing: these theories are not compatible with falsificationism. On the other hand, falsificationism yields a basically viable solution to the problems of explanation, prediction and theory testing in a deterministic context. The present paper shows how to introduce the falsificationist solution into the realm of statistics. This is done mainly by applying the concept of empirical (...)
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  5. F. J. Anscombe (1951). Mr. Kneale on Probability and Induction. Mind 60 (239):299-309.
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  6. F. J. Anscombe (1951). Mr. Kneale on Probability and Induction I. Mind 60 (239):299-309.
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  7. André Ariew (1998). Are Probabilities Necessary for Evolutionary Explanations? Biology and Philosophy 13 (2):245-253.
    Several philosophers of science have advanced an instrumentalist thesis about the use of probabilities in evolutionary biology. I investigate the consequences of instrumentalism on evolutionary explanations. I take issue with Barbara Horan's (1994) argument that probabilities are unnecessary to explain evolutionary change given the underlying deterministic character of evolutionary processes. First, I question Horan's deterministic assumption. Then, I attempt to undermine her Laplacian argument by demonstrating that whether probabilities are necessary depends upon the sort of questions one is asking.
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  8. Horacio Arló-Costa & Richmond Thomason (2004). Iterative Probability Kinematics. Journal of Philosophical Logic 30 (5):479-524.
    Following the pioneer work of Bruno De Finetti, conditional probability spaces (allowing for conditioning with events of measure zero) have been studied since (at least) the 1950's.
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  9. David Malet Armstrong (1991). What Makes Induction Rational? Dialogue 30 (04):503-11.
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  10. David Atkinson & Jeanne Peijnenburg (2006). Probability All the Way Up. Synthese 153 (2):187 - 197.
    Richard Jeffrey's radical probabilism ('probability all the way down') is augmented by the claim that probability cannot be turned into certainty, except by data that logically exclude all alternatives. Once we start being uncertain, no amount of updating will free us from the treadmill of uncertainty. This claim is cast first in objectivist and then in subjectivist terms.
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  11. Davis Baird & Richard E. Otte (1982). How to Commit the Gambler's Fallacy and Get Away with It. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1982:169 - 180.
    In a recent article Ian Hacking argues that there can be cases where no probabilities may correctly be ascribed to individual members of a population, while probabilities are correctly ascribable to the population as a whole. In this paper a simple artificial coin-flipping model for such probabilities, not 'grounded from below' is constructed. The inferences licensed by this model and a consequence of the model for the theory of statistical tests is explored.
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  12. Gergely Bana & Thomas Durt (1997). Proof of Kolmogorovian Censorship. Foundations of Physics 27 (10):1355-1373.
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  13. Maya Bar-Hillel (2010). A Commentary on Mel Rutherford's 'On the Use and Misuse of the “Two Children” Brainteaser'. Pragmatics and Cognition 18 (1):175-179.
    Rutherford criticizes the way some people have analyzed the 2-children problem, claiming that slight nuances in the problem's formulation can change the correct answer. However, his own data demonstrate that even when there is a unique correct answer, participants give intuitive answers that differ from it systematically — replicating the data reported by those he criticizes. Thus, his critique reduces to an admonition to use care in formulating and analyzing this brainteaser — which is always a good idea — but (...)
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  14. Dror Bar-Natan (1989). Two Examples in Noncommutative Probability. Foundations of Physics 19 (1):97-104.
    A simple noncommutative probability theory is presented, and two examples for the difference between that theory and the classical theory are shown. The first example is the well-known formulation of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in terms of a variance inequality and the second example is an interpretatio of the Bell paradox in terms of noncommuntative probability.
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  15. Jean Baratgin, David E. Over & Guy Politzer (2011). Betting on Conditionals. Thinking and Reasoning 16 (3):172-197.
    A study is reported testing two hypotheses about a close parallel relation between indicative conditionals, if A then B , and conditional bets, I bet you that if A then B . The first is that both the indicative conditional and the conditional bet are related to the conditional probability, P(B|A). The second is that de Finetti's three-valued truth table has psychological reality for both types of conditional— true , false , or void for indicative conditionals and win , lose (...)
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  16. M. Barhillel (1989). How to Solve Probability Teasers-Discussion. Philosophy of Science 56 (2):348-358.
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  17. Eric Christian Barnes (1998). Probabilities and Epistemic Pluralism. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 49 (1):31-47.
    A pluralistic scientific method is one that incorporates a variety of points of view in scientific inquiry. This paper investigates one example of pluralistic method: the use of weighted averaging in probability estimation. I consider two methods of weight determination, one based on disjoint evidence possession and the other on track record. I argue that weighted averaging provides a rational procedure for probability estimation under certain conditions. I consider a strategy for calculating ‘mixed weights’ which incorporate mixed information about agent (...)
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  18. Howard Barnum, Carl Philipp Gaebler & Alexander Wilce (2013). Ensemble Steering, Weak Self-Duality, and the Structure of Probabilistic Theories. Foundations of Physics 43 (12):1411-1427.
    In any probabilistic theory, we say that a bipartite state ω on a composite system AB steers its marginal state ω B if, for any decomposition of ω B as a mixture ω B =∑ i p i β i of states β i on B, there exists an observable {a i } on A such that the conditional states $\omega_{B|a_{i}}$ are exactly the states β i . This is always so for pure bipartite states in quantum mechanics, a fact (...)
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  19. Martin Barrett & Elliott Sober (1994). The Second Law of Probability Dynamics. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 45 (4):941-953.
    When the probability of causes, and the probability of effects, given causes, are each randomly assigned, entropy ‘usually’ increases.
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  20. Robert E. Bass (1952). Causality, Probability and Organization. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 12 (4):562-564.
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  21. Patrick K. Bastable (1971). The Concept of Probability. Philosophical Studies 20:337-338.
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  22. Peter Baumann (2005). Three Doors, Two Players, and Single-Case Probabilities. American Philosophical Quarterly 42 (1):71 - 79.
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  23. William H. Baumer (1967). The One Systematically Ambiguous Concept of Probability. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 28 (2):264-268.
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  24. Claus Beisbart & Stephan Hartmann (eds.) (2011). Probabilities in Physics. Oxford University Press.
    This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics.
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  25. David Bellhouse (1996). Book Reviews. [REVIEW] Philosophia Mathematica 4 (3):290-291.
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  26. F. C. Benenson (1977). Randomness and the Frequency Definition of Probability. Synthese 36 (2):207 - 233.
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  27. Jonathan Bennett (1957). Some Aspects of Probability and Induction (II). British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 7 (28):316-322.
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  28. Jonathan Bennett (1956). Some Aspects of Probability and Induction (I). British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 7 (27):220-230.
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  29. Gustav Bergmann (1945). Frequencies, Probabilities, and Positivism. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 6 (1):26-44.
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  30. Joseph Louis François Bertrand (1888). Calcul des Probabilités. Gauthier-Villars Et Fils.
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  31. John Bigelow & Robert Pargetter (1987). An Analysis of Indefinite Probability Statements. Synthese 73 (2):361 - 370.
    An analysis of indefinite probability statements has been offered by Jackson and Pargetter (1973). We accept that this analysis will assign the correct probability values for indefinite probability claims. But it does so in a way which fails to reflect the epistemic state of a person who makes such a claim. We offer two alternative analyses: one employing de re (epistemic) probabilities, and the other employing de dicto (epistemic) probabilities. These two analyses appeal only to probabilities which are accessible to (...)
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  32. Thomas Bittner (1993). Probability and Infinite Sets. Cogito 7 (2):150-152.
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  33. Siri Blom (1955). Concerning a Controversy on the Meaning of 'Probability'. Theoria 21 (2-3):65-98.
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  34. Jean-Francois Bonnefon & Denis J. Hilton (2002). The Suppression of Modus Ponens as a Case of Pragmatic Preconditional Reasoning. Thinking and Reasoning 8 (1):21 – 40.
    The suppression of the Modus Ponens inference is described as a loss of confidence in the conclusion C of an argument ''If A1 then C; If A2 then C; A1'' where A2 is a requirement for C to happen. It is hypothesised that this loss of confidence is due to the derivation of the conversational implicature ''there is a chance that A2 might not be satisfied'', and that different syntactic introductions of the requirement A2 (e.g., ''If C then A2'') will (...)
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  35. Emile Borel (1963). Probability and Certainty. New York, Walker.
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  36. R. Bradley (2012). Multidimensional Possible-World Semantics for Conditionals. Philosophical Review 121 (4):539-571.
    Adams’s Thesis, the claim that the probabilities of indicative conditionals equal the conditional probabilities of their consequents given their antecedents, has proven impossible to accommodate within orthodox possible-world semantics. This essay proposes a modification to the orthodoxy that removes this impossibility. The starting point is a proposal by Jeffrey and Stalnaker that conditionals take semantic values in the unit interval, interpreting these (à la McGee) as their expected truth-values at a world. Their theories imply a false principle, namely, that the (...)
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  37. Steven J. Brams & D. Marc Kilgour (1998). Backward Induction Is Not Robust: The Parity Problem and the Uncertainty Problem. [REVIEW] Theory and Decision 45 (3):263-289.
    A cornerstone of game theory is backward induction, whereby players reason backward from the end of a game in extensive form to the beginning in order to determine what choices are rational at each stage of play. Truels, or three-person duels, are used to illustrate how the outcome can depend on (1) the evenness/oddness of the number of rounds (the parity problem) and (2) uncertainty about the endpoint of the game (the uncertainty problem). Since there is no known endpoint in (...)
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  38. H. Breny (1983). À propos du terme "probabilité". Logique Et Analyse 26 (2):129.
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  39. C. D. Broad (1920). The Relation Between Induction and Probability--(Part II.). Mind 29 (113):11-45.
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  40. C. D. Broad (1918). On the Relation Between Induction and Probability (Part I.). Mind 27 (108):389-404.
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  41. John P. Burgess (1969). Probability Logic. Journal of Symbolic Logic 34 (2):264-274.
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  42. Edmund F. Byrne (1968). Probability and Opinion. The Hague, Martinus Nijhoff.
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  43. B. C. (1982). Philosophical Problems of Statistical Inference. Review of Metaphysics 35 (4):907-909.
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  44. Rudolf Carnap (1973). Notes on Probability and Induction. Synthese 25 (3-4):269 - 298.
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  45. Rudolf Carnap (1963). Remarks on Probability. Philosophical Studies 14 (5):65 - 75.
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  46. Nancy Cartwright & Martin Jones (1991). How to Hunt Quantum Causes. Erkenntnis 35 (1-3):205 - 231.
    Reichenbach worked in an era when philosophers were hopeful about the unity of science, and particularly about unity of method. He looked for universal tests of causal connectedness that could be applied across disciplines and independently of specific modeling assumptions. The hunt for quantum causes reminds us that his hopes were too optimistic. The mark method is not even a starter in testing for causal links between outcomes in E.P.R., because our background hypotheses about these links are too thin to (...)
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  47. Peter C. -H. Cheng (1991). The Common Thread of Induction. [REVIEW] British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42 (2):269-272.
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  48. Dr Siu L. Chow (2002). Issues in Statistical Inference. Philosophical Explorations.
    The APA Task Force’s treatment of research methods is critically examined. The present defense of the experiment rests on showing that (a) the control group cannot be replaced by the contrast group, (b) experimental psychologists have valid reasons to use non-randomly selected subjects, (c) there is no evidential support for the experimenter expectancy effect, (d) the Task Force had misrepresented the role of inductive and deductive logic, and (e) the validity of experimental data does not require appealing to the effect (...)
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  49. Siu L. Chow, Statistics and its Role in Psychological Research.
    How one may use descriptive statistics to give a succinct description of research data is first discussed. The probability basis of inferential statistics, namely, the random sampling distribution of the test statistic, is then introduced. The said sampling distribution is used to introduced the null-hypothesis significance-testing procedure (NHSTP). The emphasis on 'procedure' serves to highlight the fact that significance tests are about data, not about the substantive hypothesis. The distinction is made between (a) the statistical alternative hypothesis (H1) and the (...)
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  50. Rolando Chuaqui (1991). Truth, Possibility and Probability: New Logical Foundations of Probability and Statistical Inference Vol. 166. Access Online Via Elsevier.
    This unique book presents a new interpretation of probability, rooted in the traditional interpretation that was current in the 17th and 18th centuries.
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