Abstract
I argue that to the extent to which philosophical theories of objective probability have offered theoretically adequate conceptions of objective probability (in connection with such desiderata as causal and explanatory significance, applicability to single cases, etc.), they have failed to satisfy a methodological standard – roughly, a requirement to the effect that the conception offered be specified with the precision appropriate for a physical interpretation of an abstract formal calculus and be fully explicated in terms of concepts, objects or phenomena understood independently of the idea of physical probability. The significance of this, and of the suggested methodological standard, is then briefly discussed.
This paper was written, in part, under a grant from the Graduate School of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which I gratefully acknowledge. I would also like to thank James H. Fetzer for many useful suggestions which improved an earlier draft, and Michael Byrd for useful discussions.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Baird D, Otte RE (1982) How to commit the Gambler’s fallacy and get away with it. In: Asquith PD, Nickles T (eds) PSA 1982, Philosophy of science association, east lansing, Michigan, pp 169–180
Benacerraf P (1973) Mathematical truth. J Philos 70:661–679
Cartwright (N) 1979 Causal laws and effective strategies. Nous 13:419–437
Eells E (1982) Rational decision and causality. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England and New York
Eells E and Sober E (1983) Probabilistic causality and the question of transitivity. Philos Sci 50: 35–57
Fetzer JH (1971) Dispositional probabilities. In: Buck RC, Cohen RS (eds) Boston studies in the philosophy of science VIII (PSA 1970). Reidel, Dordrecht, pp 473–482
Fetzer JH (1974) Statistical probabilities: single case propensities vs. long-run frequencies. In: Leinfellner W, Köhler E (eds) Developments in the methodology of social science. Reidel, Dordrecht, pp 387–397
Fetzer JH (1977) Reichenbach, reference classes, and single case “Probabilities”. Synthese 34:185–217. Errata, Synthese 37 (1978), 113–14. Reprinted in Salmon (1979)
Fetzer JH (1981) Scientific knowledge. Reidel, Dordrecht
Fetzer JH and Nute DE (1979) Syntax, semantics, and ontology: a probabilistic causal calculus. Synthese 40:453–495
Fetzer JH and Nute DE (1980) A probabilistic causal calculus: conflicting conceptions. Synthese 44:241–246. Errata, Synthese 48 (1981), 493
Giere RN (1973) Objective single-case probabilities and the foundations of statistics. In: Suppes P, Henkin L, Joja A, Moisil GC (eds) Logic, methodology and philosophy of science IV. North-Holland, Amsterdam, London, pp 467–483
Giere RN (1976) A Laplacean formal semantics for single-case propensities. J Philos Logic 5: 320–353
Hacking I (1965) Logic of statistical inference. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England and New York
Hacking I (1980) Grounding probabilities from below. In: Asquith PD, Giere RN (eds) PSA 1980. Philosophy of Science Association, East Lansing, Michigan, pp 110–16
Jeffrey RC (1965) The logic of fecision, 2nd edn (1983). University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London
Kyburg HE Jr (1974) Propensities and probabilities. Br J Philos Sci 25:359–375
Kyburg HE Jr (1978) Propensities and probabilities. In: Toumela R (ed) Dispositions. Reidel, Dordrecht, pp 277–301. This is a slightly revised version of Kyburg (1974)
Popper KR (1957) The propensity interpretation of the calculus of probability, and the quantum theory. In: Körner S (ed) Observation and interpretation in the philosophy of physics. Dover Publications, New York, pp 65–70
Popper KR (1959) The propensity interpretation of probability. Br J Philos Sci 10:25–42
Reichenbach H (1949) The theory of probability. University of California Press, Berkeley
Russell B (1948) Human knowledge: its scope and limits. Simon and Schuster, New York
Salmon WC (1967) The foundations of scientific inference. University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh
Salmon WC (1971) Statistical explanation and statistical relevance. University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh
Salmon WC (1979) Hans Reichenbach: logical empiricist. Reidel, Dordrecht
Settle T (1975) Presuppositions of propensity theories of probability. In: Maxwell G, Anderson RM Jr (eds) Minnesota studies in the philosophy of science VI: induction, probability and confirmation. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, pp 388–415
Sklar L (1970) Is probability a dispositional property? J Philos 67:355–366
Skyrms B (1980) Causal necessity. Yale University Press, New Haven
Suppes P (1973) New foundations of objective probability: axioms for propensities. In: Suppe P, Henkin L, Joja A, Moisil GC (eds) Logic, methodology and philosophy of science IV. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp 515–529
Suppes P (1974) Popper’s analysis of probability in quantum mechanics. In: Schilpp PA (ed) The philosophy of Karl Popper. Open Court, La Salle, IL, pp 760–774
Van Fraassen BC (1979) Relative frequencies. In: Salmon (1979)
Von Mises R (1957) Probability, statistics and truth, 2nd English edn. Macmillan, New York
Von Mises R (1964) In: Geiringer H (ed) Mathematical theory of probability and statistics. Academic Press, New York
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Eells, E. (2010). Probabilistic Causality and Causal Generalizations. In: Eells, E., Fetzer, J. (eds) The Place of Probability in Science. Boston Studies in the Philosophy of Science, vol 284. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3615-5_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3615-5_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-3614-8
Online ISBN: 978-90-481-3615-5
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawPhilosophy and Religion (R0)