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A mathematical theory of evidence for G.L.S. Shackle

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Abstract

Evidence Theory is a branch of mathematics that concerns combination of empirical evidence in an individual’s mind in order to construct a coherent picture of reality. Designed to deal with unexpected empirical evidence suggesting new possibilities, evidence theory is compatible with Shackle’s idea of decision-making as a creative act. This essay investigates this connection in detail, pointing to the usefulness of evidence theory to formalise and extend Shackle’s decision theory.

In order to ease a proper framing of the issues involved, evidence theory is compared with sub-additive probability theory and Ewens’s infinite alleles model. Furthermore, the original version of evidence theory is presented along with its most recent developments.

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  1. Guido Fioretti

    Present address: , via Angeloni 11, I-05100, Terni

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  1. Università di Firenze, Firenze, Italia

    Guido Fioretti

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Fioretti, G. A mathematical theory of evidence for G.L.S. Shackle. Mind & Society 2, 77–98 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02512076

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