Skip to main content
Log in

Don't Take Unnecessary Chances!

  • Published:
Synthese Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The dominant argument for the introduction ofpropensities or chances as an interpretation of probabilitydepends on the difficulty of accounting for single caseprobabilities. We argue that in almost all cases, the``single case'' application of probability can be accountedfor otherwise. ``Propensities'' are needed only intheoretical contexts, and even there applications ofprobability need only depend on propensities indirectly.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

REFERENCES

  • Carnap, Rudolf: 1950, The Logical Foundations of Probability, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eells, Ellery: 1983, ‘On a Recent Theory of Rational Acceptance', Philosophical Studies 44, 331–344.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fetzer, James H.: 1977, ‘Reichenbach, Reference Classes, and Single Case ‘Probabilities’, Synthese 34, 185–217.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fetzer, James: 1981, Scientific Knowledge, Reidel, Dordrecht.

    Google Scholar 

  • Giere, Ronald N.: 1988, Explaining Science, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gillies, Donald: 2000, Philosophical Theories of Probability, Routledge, London and New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hacking, Ian: 1965, Logic of Statistical Inference, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg, Henry E., Jr.: 1978, ‘Propensities and Probabilities', in R. Tuomela (ed.), Dispositions, Reidel, Dordrecht, pp. 277–301.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg, Henry E., Jr.: 1984, Theory and Measurement, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg, Henry E., Jr.: 1997, ‘Quantities, Magnitudes, and Numbers', Philosophy of Science 64, 377–410.

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller, David W.: 1994, Critical Rationalism: A Restatement and Defence, Open Court, Peru, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Popper, Karl R.: 1957, ‘The Propensity Interpretation of the Calculus of Probability, and the Quantum Theory', in S. Korner (ed.), Observation and Interpretation, Butterworth's Scientific Publications, pp. 65–70, 88-89.

  • Reichenbach, Hans: 1949, The Theory of Probability, University of California Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles, CA.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kyburg, H.E. Don't Take Unnecessary Chances!. Synthese 132, 9–26 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019610615497

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019610615497

Keywords

Navigation