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Base rates and randomness

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 December 1997

Ranald R. Macdonald
Ranald R. Macdonald
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA, Scotlandr.r.macdonald@stir.ac.uk www.stir.ac/departments/humansciences/psychology/staff/rrm1
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Abstract

In base rate problems the estimated probability must equal the base rate only where random sampling is assumed. Otherwise there is uncertainty over and above that which can be included in any probability model and inductive inference is involved. Subjects should use base rates to the extent that the problem suggests a simple random sampling model.

Type
Continuing Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 20 , Issue 4 , December 1997 , pp. 778
Copyright
© 1997 Cambridge University Press

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