Abstract
Bayesian decision theory is here construed as explicating a particular concept of rational choice and Bayesian probability is taken to be the concept of probability used in that theory. Bayesian probability is usually identified with the agent’s degrees of belief but that interpretation makes Bayesian decision theory a poor explication of the relevant concept of rational choice. A satisfactory conception of Bayesian decision theory is obtained by taking Bayesian probability to be an explicatum for inductive probability given the agent’s evidence.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Carnap, R. (1950). Logical foundations of probability (2nd ed., 1962). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Carnap R. (1952) The continuum of inductive methods. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
Carnap R. (1963) Replies and systematic expositions. In: Schilpp P.A. (eds) The philosophy of Rudolf Carnap. Open Court, La Salle, IL, pp 859–1013
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., Tversky, A. (eds) (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press, New York
Maher P. (2006) The concept of inductive probability. Erkenntnis 65: 185–206
Maher P. (2007) Explication defended. Studia Logica 86: 331–341
Maher, P. (2008). Physical probability. In C. Glymour, W. Wang, & D. Westerståhl (Eds.), Logic, methodology and philosophy of science: Proceedings of the thirteenth international congress. London: Kings College Publications (To appear).
Ore O. (1960) Pascal and the invention of probability theory. American Mathematical Monthly 67: 409–419
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Maher, P. Bayesian probability. Synthese 172, 119–127 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-009-9471-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-009-9471-6