Abstract
If a parsimony criterion may be used to choose between theories that make different predictions, may the same criterion be used to choose between theories that are predictively equivalent? The work of the statistician H. Akaike (1973) is discussed in connection with this question. The results are applied to two examples in which parsimony has been invoked to choose between philosophical theories-Shoemaker's (1969) discussion of the possibility of time without change and the discussion by Smart (1959) and Brandt and Kim (1967) of mind/body dualism and the identity theory.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Akaike, H.: 1973. ‘Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle’, in B. Petrov and F. Csaki (eds.), Second International Symposium on Information Theory, Akademiai Kiado, Budapest, pp. 267–281.
Brandt, R. and J.Kim: 1967, ‘The Logic of the Identity Theory’, Journal of Philosophy 64, 515–537.
Carnap, R.: 1950, ‘Empiricism, Semantics, and Ontology’, Revue Internationale de Philosophie 4, 20–40, Reprinted in Meaning and Necessity (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1956).
Chaitin, G.: 1975, ‘Randomness and Mathematical Proof’, Scientific American 232, 47–52.
Earman, J.: 1993, ‘Underdetermination, Realism, and Reason’, in H.Wettstein (ed.), Midwest Studies in Philosophy, University of Notre Dame Press, Notre Dame, pp. 19–38.
Enc, B.: 1986, ‘Essentialism without Individual Essences: Causation, Kinds, Supervenience, and Restricted Identities’, in P. French et al. (eds.), Midwest Studies in Philosophy 11, 403–427.
Fisher, R.: 1925, Statistical Methods for Research Workers, Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh.
Fodor, J.: 1975, The Language of Thought, Thomas Crowell, New York.
Forster, M.: 1988, ‘Unification, Explanation, and the Composition of Causes in Newtonian Mechanics’, Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science, 55–101.
Forster, M. and Sober, E.: 1994, ‘How to Tell When Simpler, More Unified, or Less ad hoc Theories Will Provide More Accurate Predictions’, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 45, 1–36.
Hacking, I.: 1965. ‘Salmon's Vindication’, Philosophy of Science 32, 269–271.
Kim, J.: 1984, ‘Epiphenomenal and Supervenient Causation’, In P.French, T.Uehling and H.Wettstein (eds.), Midwest Studies in Philosophy, vol. 9, University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, pp. 257–270.
Kuhn, T.: 1957, The Copernican Revolution, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass.
Kuhn, T.: 1970, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Putnam, H.: 1975, ‘Mathematics, Matter, and Method’, Philosophical Papers, volume I, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Quine, W.: 1953, ‘Two Dogmas of Empiricism’, in From a Logical Point of View, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., pp. 20–46.
Reichenbach, H.: 1938, Experience and Prediction, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Sakamoto, Y., M.Ishiguro and G.Kitagawa: 1986, Akaike Information Criterion Statistics, Kluwer Publishers, Dordrecht.
Shoemaker, S.: 1969, ‘Time Without Change’, Journal of Philosophy 66, 363–381. Reprinted in Identity, Cause, and Mind Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1989.
Smart, J.: 1959, ‘Sensations and Brain Processes’, Philosophical Review 68, 141–156.
Sober, E.: 1988a ‘Likelihood and Convergence’, Philosophy of Science 55, 228–237.
Sober, E.: 1988b Reconstructing the Past: Parsimony, Evolution, and Inference, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
Sober, E.: 1990a, ‘Contrastive Empiricism’, in W.Savage (ed.), Scientific Theories, University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, pp. 392–412. Reprinted in E. Sober, From a Biological Point of View, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1994.
Sober, E.: 1990b, ‘Let's Razor Ockham's Razor’, in D.Knowles, (ed.), Explanation and Its Limits, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Mass., pp. 73–94. Reprinted in E. Sober, From a Biological Point of View, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1994.
Sober, E.: 1993a, ‘Epistemology for Empiricists’, in H.Wettstein (ed.), Midwest Studies in Philosophy, University of Notre Dame Press, Notre Dame, pp. 39–61.
Sober, E.: 1993b, ‘Mathematics and Indispensability’, Philosophical Review 102, 35–58.
Sober, E.: 1993c, Philosophy of Biology, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado.
Van Fraassen, B.: 1980, The Scientific Image, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sober, E. Parsimony and predictive equivalence. Erkenntnis 44, 167–197 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00166500
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00166500