Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-ph5wq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-28T20:12:17.530Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The dynamics of development: Challenges for Bayesian rationality

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 February 2009

Nils Straubinger
Affiliation:
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, 14195, Germany. straubinger@mpib-berlin.mpg.decokely@mpib-berlin.mpg.dejstevens@mpib-berlin.mpg.dewww-abc.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/users/jstevens/
Edward T. Cokely
Affiliation:
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, 14195, Germany. straubinger@mpib-berlin.mpg.decokely@mpib-berlin.mpg.dejstevens@mpib-berlin.mpg.dewww-abc.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/users/jstevens/
Jeffrey R. Stevens
Affiliation:
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, 14195, Germany. straubinger@mpib-berlin.mpg.decokely@mpib-berlin.mpg.dejstevens@mpib-berlin.mpg.dewww-abc.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/users/jstevens/

Abstract

Oaksford & Chater (O&C) focus on patterns of typical adult reasoning from a probabilistic perspective. We discuss implications of extending the probabilistic approach to lifespan development, considering the role of working memory, strategy use, and expertise. Explaining variations in human reasoning poses a challenge to Bayesian rational analysis, as it requires integrating knowledge about cognitive processes.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anderson, J. R. (1991a) Is human cognition adaptive? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14:471–84; discussion 485–517.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baltes, P. B., Staudinger, U. M. & Lindenberger, U. (1999) Lifespan psychology: Theory and application to intellectual functioning. Annual Review of Psychology 50:471507.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Brighton, H. & Gigerenzer, G. (2008) Bayesian brains and cognitive mechanisms: Harmony or dissonance? In: The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science, ed. Chater, N. & Oaksford, M., pp. 189208, Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cokely, E. T., Kelley, C. M. & Gilchrist, A. L. (2006) Sources of individual differences in working memory: Contributions of strategy to capacity. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review 13:991–97.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Conlin, J. A., Gathercole, S. E. & Adams, J. W. (2005) Children's working memory: Investigating performance limitations in complex span tasks. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology 90:303–17.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dick, F., Leech, R., Moses, P. & Saccuman, M. C. (2006) The interplay of learning and development in shaping neural organization. Developmental Science 9:1417.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ericsson, K. A., Charness, N., Hoffmann, R. R. & Feltovich, P. J. (2006) Cambridge handbook of expertise and expert performance. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ericsson, K. A. & Kintsch, W. (1995) Long-term working memory. Psychological Review 102:211–45.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ericsson, K. A. & Lehmann, A. C. (1996) Expert and exceptional performance: Evidence of maximal adaptation to task constraints. Annual Reviews in Psychology 47:273305.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Falk, R. & Wilkening, F. (1998) Children's construction of fair chances: Adjusting probabilities. Developmental Psychology 34:1340–57.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Galotti, K. M., Komatsu, L. K. & Voelz, S. (1997) Children's differential performance on deductive and inductive syllogisms. Developmental Psychology 33:7078.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Howe, M. L. & Rabinowitz, F. M. (1996) Reasoning from memory: A lifespan inquiry into the necessity of remembering when reasoning about class inclusion. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology 61:142.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kyllonen, P. C. & Christal, R. E. (1990) Reasoning ability is (little more than) working-memory capacity?! Intelligence 14:389433.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Markovits, H. & Barrouillet, P. (2002) The development of conditional reasoning: A mental model account. Developmental Review 22:536.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Navarro, D. J., Griffiths, T. L., Steyvers, M. & Lee, M. D. (2006) Modeling individual differences using Dirichlet processes. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 50:101–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oaksford, M. & Chater, N. (2007) Bayesian rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piaget, J. & Inhelder, B. (1975) The origin of the idea of chance in children. W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
Shultz, T. R. (2007) The Bayesian revolution approaches psychological development. Developmental Science 10:357–64.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sobel, D. M., Tenenbaum, J. B. & Gopnik, A. (2004) Children's causal inferences from indirect evidence: Backwards blocking and Bayesian reasoning in preschoolers. Cognitive Science 28:303–33.Google Scholar
Sternberg, R. J. (1999) Intelligence as developing expertise. Contemporary Educational Psychology 24:359–75.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Verhaeghen, P. & Salthouse, T. A. (1997) Meta-analyses of age-cognition relations in adulthood: Estimates of linear and nonlinear age effects and structural models. Psychological Bulletin 122:231–49.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed