Skip to main content

Calibration: A Frequency Justification for Personal Probability

  • Chapter
Book cover Physics, Philosophy and Psychoanalysis

Part of the book series: Boston Studies in the Philosophy of Science ((BSPS,volume 76))

Abstract

If a physical theory states that the probability of some event, under certain conditions, is thus or so, we naturally take that to be a statement of objective fact, descriptive of the way the world is. And we expect that fact, if it is indeed the case, to be reflected in frequencies of occurrence among the described events. What is called the frequency interpretation of probability intends something more: namely, that such a probabilistic theory is reallyonlyabout actual frequencies of occurrence.1

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Brier, G. W. 1950. ‘Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability,’Monthly Weather Review 78, 1–3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Finetti, B. 1965. ‘Methods for Discriminating Levels of Partial Knowledge Concerning a Test Item,’British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 18, 87–123.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickey, J. M. 1974. ‘Comments on Suppes,’Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B36, 179–180.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M. 1921.Treatise on Probability. London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg, H. E., Jr. 1974.The Logical Foundations of Statistical Inference. Dordrecht: D. Reidel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg, H. E., Jr. and H. E. Smokier (eds.), 1964.Studies in Subjective Probability. New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murphy, A. H. 1972. ‘Scalar and Vector Partitions of the Probability Score,’Journal of Applied Metereology 11, 273–282.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pickhardt, R. C. and J. B. Wallace. 1974. ‘A Study of the Performance of Subjective Probability Assessors,’Decision Sciences 5, 347–363.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reichenbach, H. 1949.The Theory of Probability. 2nd ed. Berkeley: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salmon, W. 1967.The Foundations of Statistical Inference. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shuford, E. H., A Albert, and H. E. Massen. 1966. ‘Admissible Probability Measurement Procedures,’Psychometrika 31, 125–145.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Fraassen, B. C. 1979. ‘Foundations of Probability Theory: A Modal Frequency Interpretation.’ In G. Toraldo di Francia (ed.),Problems in the Foundations of Physics. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

    Google Scholar 

  • van Fraassen, B. C. 1980.The Scientific Image. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • van Fraassen, B. C. 1981. Theory Construction and Experiment: An Empiricist View.’ In P. Asquith and R. Giere (eds.),PSA 1980, vol. 2. East Lansing, Michigan: Philosophy of Science Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • van Fraassen, B. C. 1982. ‘Glymour on Evidence and Explanation.’ In J. Earman (ed.)Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science, vol. 10. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, forthcoming.

    Google Scholar 

  • Venn, J. 1888.The Logic of Chance( 1886 ). London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Winkler, R. L. and A. H. Murphy 1968. ‘“Good” Probability Assessors,’Journal of Applied Metereology 7, 751–758.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1983 D. Reidel Publishing Company

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Van Fraassen, B.C. (1983). Calibration: A Frequency Justification for Personal Probability. In: Cohen, R.S., Laudan, L. (eds) Physics, Philosophy and Psychoanalysis. Boston Studies in the Philosophy of Science, vol 76. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-7055-7_15

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-7055-7_15

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-009-7057-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-009-7055-7

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics