Abstract
We suggest a rigorous theory of how objective single-case transition probabilities fit into our world. The theory combines indeterminism and relativity in the “branching space–times” pattern, and relies on the existing theory of causae causantes (originating causes). Its fundamental suggestion is that (at least in simple cases) the probabilities of all transitions can be computed from the basic probabilities attributed individually to their originating causes. The theory explains when and how one can reasonably infer from the probabilities of one “chance set-up” to the probabilities of another such set-up that is located far away.
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We thank Tomasz Placek for his significant help via an extensive and instructive correspondence, Thomas Müller for numerous eye-opening conversations and for his corrections to and comments upon a long sequence of drafts, both Placek and Müller for pre-publication sharing of their results, and Christopher Hitchcock for a number of suggestions.
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Weiner, M., Belnap, N. How Causal Probabilities Might Fit into Our Objectively Indeterministic World. Synthese 149, 1–36 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-004-6240-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-004-6240-4