Seamus Bradley Ludwig Maximilians Universität, München
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Affiliations
  • Postdoc, Ludwig Maximilians Universität, München
  • PhD, London School of Economics, 2012.

Areas of specialization
  • None specified

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About me
I'm a post doc at the Munich Centre for Mathematical Philosophy. I am interested in decision theory, formal epistemology and philosophy of science.
My works
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  1. Seamus Bradley & Katie Steele (2014). Uncertainty, Learning, and the “Problem” of Dilation. Erkenntnis 79 (6):1287-1303.
    Imprecise probabilism—which holds that rational belief/credence is permissibly represented by a set of probability functions—apparently suffers from a problem known as dilation. We explore whether this problem can be avoided or mitigated by one of the following strategies: (a) modifying the rule by which the credal state is updated, (b) restricting the domain of reasonable credal states to those that preclude dilation.
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  2. Seamus Bradley (2012). Dutch Book Arguments and Imprecise Probabilities. In Dennis Dieks, Stephan Hartmann, Michael Stoeltzner & Marcel Weber (eds.), Probabilities, Laws and Structures. Springer.
  3. Seamus Bradley, Scientific Uncertainty: A User's Guide. Grantham Institute on Climate Change Discussion Paper.
    There are different kinds of uncertainty. I outline some of the various ways that uncertainty enters science, focusing on uncertainty in climate science and weather prediction. I then show how we cope with some of these sources of error through sophisticated modelling techniques. I show how we maintain confidence in the face of error.
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  4. Seamus Bradley (2011). A Literary Approach to Scientific Practice. Metascience 20 (2):363--367.
    A literary approach to scientific practice: Essay Review of R.I.G. Hughes' _The Theoretical Practices of Physics_.
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  5. Seamus Bradley & Katie Siobhan Steele, Should Subjective Probabilities Be Sharp?
    There has been much recent interest in imprecise probabilities, models of belief that allow unsharp or fuzzy credence. There have also been some influential criticisms of this position. Here we argue, chiefly against Elga (2010), that subjective probabilities need not be sharp. The key question is whether the imprecise probabilist can make reasonable sequences of decisions. We argue that she can. We outline Elga's argument and clarify the assumptions he makes and the principles of rationality he is implicitly committed to. (...)
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  6. Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Hailiang Du & Leonard A. Smith, Laplace's Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices.
    The sensitive dependence on initial conditions (SDIC) associated with nonlinear models imposes limitations on the models’ predictive power. We draw attention to an additional limitation than has been under-appreciated, namely structural model error (SME). A model has SME if the model-dynamics differ from the dynamics in the target system. If a nonlinear model has only the slightest SME, then its ability to generate decision-relevant predictions is compromised. Given a perfect model, we can take the effects of SDIC into account by (...)
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  7. Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Reason L. Machete & Leonard A. Smith, Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection is a Poison Pill.
    This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate (...)
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