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Forthcoming articles
  1. J. F. Bonnefon & D. J. Hilton (forthcoming). The Suppression of Modus Ponens as a Case of Pragmatic Preconditional Reasoning. Accepted Subject to Revision. Thinking and Reasoning.
     
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  2.  5
    M. Eliades, W. Mansell, A. Stewart & I. Blanchette (forthcoming). Modulation of Reasoning by Emotion: Findings From the Belief-Bias Paradigm. Thinking and Reasoning.
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  3. Keith J. Holyoak & Patricia W. Cheng (forthcoming). Contextual Factors in Deontic Reasoning. Thinking and Reasoning.
     
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  4.  98
    Keith J. Holyoak & Patricia W. Cheng (forthcoming). The Taming of Content: Some Thoughts About Domains and Modules. Thinking and Reasoning.
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  5.  7
    Erik Løhre & Karl Halvor Teigen (forthcoming). There is a 60% Probability, but I Am 70% Certain: Communicative Consequences of External and Internal Expressions of Uncertainty. [REVIEW] Thinking and Reasoning:1-28.
    ABSTRACTCurrent theories of probability recognise a distinction between external certainty and internal certainty. The present studies investigated this distinction in lay people's judgements of probability statements formulated to suggest either an internal or an external interpretation. These subtle differences in wording influenced participants' perceptions and endorsements of such statements, and their impressions of the speaker. External expressions were seen to signal more reliable task duration estimates, and a lower degree of external than internal certainty was deemed necessary to advise a (...)
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  6.  2
    Erik Løhre & Karl Halvor Teigen (forthcoming). There is a 60% Probability, but I Am 70% Certain: Communicative Consequences of External and Internal Expressions of Uncertainty. [REVIEW] Thinking and Reasoning:1-28.
    ABSTRACTCurrent theories of probability recognise a distinction between external certainty and internal certainty. The present studies investigated this distinction in lay people's judgements of probability statements formulated to suggest either an internal or an external interpretation. These subtle differences in wording influenced participants' perceptions and endorsements of such statements, and their impressions of the speaker. External expressions were seen to signal more reliable task duration estimates, and a lower degree of external than internal certainty was deemed necessary to advise a (...)
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  7.  9
    Salvador Mascarenhas & Philipp Koralus (forthcoming). Illusory Inferences with Quantifiers. Thinking and Reasoning:1-16.
    ABSTRACTThe psychological study of reasoning with quantifiers has predominantly focused on inference patterns studied by Aristotle about two millennia ago. Modern logic has shown a wealth of inference patterns involving quantifiers that are far beyond the expressive power of Aristotelian syllogisms, and whose psychology should be explored. We bring to light a novel class of fallacious inference patterns, some of which are so attractive that they are tantamount to cognitive illusions. In tandem with recent insights from linguistics that quantifiers like (...)
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  8.  5
    Mike Oaksford & Nick Chater (forthcoming). Probabilities, Causation, and Logic Programming in Conditional Reasoning: Reply to Stenning and Van Lambalgen. Thinking and Reasoning:1-19.
    ABSTRACTOaksford and Chater critiqued the logic programming approach to nonmonotonicity and proposed that a Bayesian probabilistic approach to conditional reasoning provided a more empirically adequate theory. The current paper is a reply to Stenning and van Lambalgen's rejoinder to this earlier paper entitled ‘Logic programming, probability, and two-system accounts of reasoning: a rejoinder to Oaksford and Chater’ in Thinking and Reasoning. It is argued that causation is basic in human cognition and that explaining how abnormality lists are created in LP (...)
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  9.  5
    Fernando Rodriguez, Rebecca E. Rhodes, Kevin F. Miller & Priti Shah (forthcoming). Examining the Influence of Anecdotal Stories and the Interplay of Individual Differences on Reasoning. Thinking and Reasoning:1-23.
    ABSTRACTIn two experiments, we explored whether anecdotal stories influenced how individuals reasoned when evaluating scientific news articles. We additionally considered the role of education level and thinking dispositions on reasoning. Participants evaluated eight scientific news articles that drew questionable interpretations from the evidence. Overall, anecdotal stories decreased the ability to reason scientifically even when controlling for education level and thinking dispositions. Additionally, we found that article length was related to participants' ratings of the news articles. Our study demonstrates that anecdotes (...)
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  10.  5
    Véronique Salvano-Pardieu, Romuald Blanc, Nicolas Combalbert, Aurélia Pierratte, Ken Manktelow, Christine Maintier, Sandra Lepeltier, Guillaume Gimenes, Catherine Barthelemy & Roger Fontaine (forthcoming). Judgment of Blame in Teenagers with Asperger's Syndrome. Thinking and Reasoning:1-23.
    ABSTRACTThe judgment of blame was studied in a group of 28 teenagers, 14 with Asperger syndrome and 14 typically developed. Teenagers in each group were matched by age, cognitive development and academic level. They were presented with 12 short vignettes in which they had to judge an action according to the intent of the actor, the consequences of the action and the seriousness of the situation. Results showed a significant difference in the patterns of judgment of both groups. The AS (...)
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  11.  8
    Carola Salvi, Emanuela Bricolo, John Kounios, Edward Bowden & Mark Beeman (forthcoming). Insight Solutions Are Correct More Often Than Analytic Solutions. Thinking and Reasoning:1-18.
    ABSTRACTHow accurate are insights compared to analytical solutions? In four experiments, we investigated how participants' solving strategies influenced their solution accuracies across different types of problems, including one that was linguistic, one that was visual and two that were mixed visual-linguistic. In each experiment, participants' self-judged insight solutions were, on average, more accurate than their analytic ones. We hypothesised that insight solutions have superior accuracy because they emerge into consciousness in an all-or-nothing fashion when the unconscious solving process is complete, (...)
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  12.  5
    Yixing Shan & Lili Yang (forthcoming). Fast and Frugal Heuristics and Naturalistic Decision Making: A Review of Their Commonalities and Differences. [REVIEW] Thinking and Reasoning:1-23.
    ABSTRACTBoth the fast and frugal heuristics and the naturalistic decision making research programmes have identified important areas of inquiry previously neglected in the traditional study of human judgment and decision making, and have greatly contributed to the understanding of people's real-world decision making under environmental constraints. The two programmes share similar theoretical arguments regarding the rationality, optimality, and role of experience in decision making. Their commonalities have made them appealing to each other, and efforts have been made, by their leading (...)
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  13.  2
    Keith Stenning & Michiel van Lambalgen (forthcoming). Logic Programming, Probability, and Two-System Accounts of Reasoning: A Rejoinder to Oaksford and Chater. Thinking and Reasoning:1-14.
    This reply to Oaksford and Chater’s ’s critical discussion of our use of logic programming to model and predict patterns of conditional reasoning will frame the dispute in terms of the semantics of the conditional. We begin by outlining some common features of LP and probabilistic conditionals in knowledge-rich reasoning over long-term memory knowledge bases. For both, context determines causal strength; there are inferences from the absence of certain evidence; and both have analogues of the Ramsey test. Some current work (...)
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  14.  5
    Momme von Sydow (forthcoming). Towards a Pattern-Based Logic of Probability Judgements and Logical Inclusion “Fallacies”. Thinking and Reasoning:1-39.
    ABSTRACTProbability judgements entail a conjunction fallacy if a conjunction is estimated to be more probable than one of its conjuncts. In the context of predication of alternative logical hypothesis, Bayesian logic provides a formalisation of pattern probabilities that renders a class of pattern-based CFs rational. BL predicts a complete system of other logical inclusion fallacies. A first test of this prediction is investigated here, using transparent tasks with clear set inclusions, varying in observed frequencies only. Experiment 1 uses data where (...)
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