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- Ernest W. Adams (1981). Transmissible Improbabilities and Marginal Essentialness of Premises in Inferences Involving Indicative Conditionals. Journal of Philosophical Logic 10 (2).
Discussion of Ernest W. Adams, Transmissible improbabilities and marginal essentialness of premises in inferences involving indicative conditionals
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The two main psychological theories of the ordinary conditional were designed to account for inferences made from assumptions, but few premises in everyday life can be simply assumed true. Useful premises usually have a probability that is less than certainty. But what is the probability of the ordinary conditional and how is it determined? We argue that people use a two stage Ramsey test that we specify to make probability judgements about indicative conditionals in natural language, and we describe experiments (...)


