Simulation methods for an abductive system in science

Foundations of Science 13 (1):37-52 (2008)
Abstract
We argue that abduction does not work in isolation from other inference mechanisms and illustrate this through an inference scheme designed to evaluate multiple hypotheses. We use game theory to relate the abductive system to actions that produce new information. To enable evaluation of the implications of this approach we have implemented the procedures used to calculate the impact of new information in a computer model. Experiments with this model display a number of features of collective belief-revision leading to consensus-formation, such as the influence of bias and prejudice. The scheme of inferential calculations invokes a Peircian concept of ‘belief’ as the propensity to choose a particular course of action
Keywords Belief  Indifference  Flexibility  Receptivity  Certainty  Bayes  Action  Confidence  Bias  Prejudice  Choice
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    References found in this work BETA
    L. Magnani (2001). Abduction, Reason, and Science. Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.
    L. Magnani (1999). Model-Based Creative Abduction. In L. Magnani, N. J. Nersessian & P. Thagard (eds.), Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery. Academic/Plenum Publishers. 219--238.

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