The curve fitting problem: A bayesian approach

Philosophy of Science 63 (3):272 (1996)
In the curve fitting problem two conflicting desiderata, simplicity and goodness-of-fit, pull in opposite directions. To this problem, we propose a solution that strikes a balance between simplicity and goodness-of-fit. Using Bayes' theorem we argue that the notion of prior probability represents a measurement of simplicity of a theory, whereas the notion of likelihood represents the theory's goodness-of-fit. We justify the use of prior probability and show how to calculate the likelihood of a family of curves. We diagnose the relationship between simplicity of a theory and its predictive accuracy
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1086/289960
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Revision history Request removal from index
Download options
PhilPapers Archive

Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy on self-archival     Papers currently archived: 21,476
External links
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library
References found in this work BETA

No references found.

Add more references

Citations of this work BETA
Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay & Gordon Brittan (2010). Two Dogmas of Strong Objective Bayesianism. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 24 (1):45 – 65.
Rhonda Martens (2009). Harmony and Simplicity: Aesthetic Virtues and the Rise of Testability. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 40 (3):258-266.
Jan Sprenger (2013). The Role of Bayesian Philosophy Within Bayesian Model Selection. European Journal for Philosophy of Science 3 (1):101-114.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Monthly downloads

Added to index


Total downloads

206 ( #15,275 of 1,911,741 )

Recent downloads (6 months)

37 ( #21,270 of 1,911,741 )

How can I increase my downloads?

My notes
Sign in to use this feature

Start a new thread
There  are no threads in this forum
Nothing in this forum yet.