David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):241-254 (2007)
The phenomenon of base-rate neglect has elicited much debate. One arena of debate concerns how people make judgments under conditions of uncertainty. Another more controversial arena concerns human rationality. In this target article, we attempt to unpack the perspectives in the literature on both kinds of issues and evaluate their ability to explain existing data and their conceptual coherence. From this evaluation we conclude that the best account of the data should be framed in terms of a dual-process model of judgment, which attributes base-rate neglect to associative judgment strategies that fail to adequately represent the set structure of the problem. Base-rate neglect is reduced when problems are presented in a format that affords accurate representation in terms of nested sets of individuals
|Keywords||Base-rate neglect Bayesian reasoning dual process theory nested set hypothesis probability judgment|
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References found in this work BETA
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Citations of this work BETA
Gerd Gigerenzer & Henry Brighton (2009). Homo Heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences. Topics in Cognitive Science 1 (1):107-143.
Vittorio Girotto & Stefania Pighin (2015). Basic Understanding of Posterior Probability. Frontiers in Psychology 6.
Gorka Navarrete, Rut Correia & Dan Froimovitch (2014). Communicating Risk in Prenatal Screening: The Consequences of Bayesian Misapprehension. Frontiers in Psychology 5.
Eric D. Johnson & Elisabet Tubau (2015). Comprehension and Computation in Bayesian Problem Solving. Frontiers in Psychology 6.
Elisabet Tubau, David Aguilar-Lleyda & Eric D. Johnson (2015). Reasoning and Choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma : Implications for Improving Bayesian Reasoning. Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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