David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):241-254 (2007)
The phenomenon of base-rate neglect has elicited much debate. One arena of debate concerns how people make judgments under conditions of uncertainty. Another more controversial arena concerns human rationality. In this target article, we attempt to unpack the perspectives in the literature on both kinds of issues and evaluate their ability to explain existing data and their conceptual coherence. From this evaluation we conclude that the best account of the data should be framed in terms of a dual-process model of judgment, which attributes base-rate neglect to associative judgment strategies that fail to adequately represent the set structure of the problem. Base-rate neglect is reduced when problems are presented in a format that affords accurate representation in terms of nested sets of individuals
|Keywords||Base-rate neglect Bayesian reasoning dual process theory nested set hypothesis probability judgment|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
L. Cosmides (1996). Are Humans Good Intuitive Statisticians After All? Rethinking Some Conclusions From the Literature on Judgment Under Uncertainty. Cognition 58 (1):1-73.
Jonathan StB. T. Evans, Simon J. Handley, Nick Perham, David E. Over & Valerie A. Thompson (2000). Frequency Versus Probability Formats in Statistical Word Problems. Cognition 77 (3):197-213.
V. Girotto (2002). Chances and Frequencies in Probabilistic Reasoning: Rejoinder to Hoffrage, Gigerenzer, Krauss, and Martignon. Cognition 84 (3):353-359.
Vittorio Girotto & Michel Gonzalez (2001). Solving Probabilistic and Statistical Problems: A Matter of Information Structure and Question Form. Cognition 78 (3):247-276.
Michel Gonzalez & Vittorio Girotto (2011). Combinatorics and Probability: Six- to ten-Year-Olds Reliably Predict Whether a Relation Will Occur. Cognition 120 (3):372-379.
Citations of this work BETA
David Danks, David Rose & Edouard Machery (2013). Demoralizing Causation. Philosophical Studies (2):1-27.
Angeles Eraña (2012). Dual Process Theories Versus Massive Modularity Hypotheses. Philosophical Psychology 25 (6):855-872.
Christoph Michel & Albert Newen (2010). Self-Deception as Pseudo-Rational Regulation of Belief. Consciousness and Cognition 19 (3):731-744.
Jonathan St B. T. Evans (2012). Spot the Difference: Distinguishing Between Two Kinds of Processing. Mind and Society 11 (1):121-131.
Shira Elqayam (2012). Grounded Rationality: Descriptivism in Epistemic Context. Synthese 189 (S1):39-49.
Similar books and articles
Brian J. Gibbs (1997). Evolving Null Hypotheses and the Base Rate Fallacy: A Functional Interpretation of Scientific Myth. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):776-777.
Jonathan St B. T. Evans & Shira Elqayam (2007). Dual-Processing Explains Base-Rate Neglect, but Which Dual-Process Theory and How? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):261-262.
Jonathan E. Adler (1997). If the Base Rate Fallacy is a Fallacy, Does It Matter How Frequently It is Committed? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):774-775.
Laura Macchi (1997). Pragmatically Before Ecologically Valid Tasks. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):778-779.
Ulrich Hoffrage (2000). Why the Analyses of Cognitive Processes Matter. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):679-680.
Robert V. Bartlett (1986). Ecological Rationality: Reason and Environmental Policy. Environmental Ethics 8 (3):221-239.
Stephen E. Newstead (2000). What is an Ecologically Rational Heuristic? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):759-760.
Ranald R. Macdonald (1997). Base Rates and Randomness. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):778-778.
Wim de Neys & Samuel Franssens (2011). The Effortless Nature of Conflict Detection During Thinking. Thinking and Reasoning 15 (2):105-128.
Aron K. Barbey & Steven A. Sloman (2007). Base-Rate Respect: From Statistical Formats to Cognitive Structures. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):287-292.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads13 ( #125,049 of 1,099,722 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #301,057 of 1,099,722 )
How can I increase my downloads?