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- Gregor Betz (2009). Underdetermination, Model-Ensembles and Surprises: On the Epistemology of Scenario-Analysis in Climatology. Journal for General Philosophy of Science 40 (1):3 - 21.As climate policy decisions are decisions under uncertainty, being based on a range of future climate change scenarios, it becomes a crucial question how to set up this scenario range. Failing to comply with the precautionary principle, the scenario methodology widely used in the Third Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seems to violate international environmental law, in particular a provision of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To place climate policy advice on a sound methodological basis would imply that climate simulations which are based on complex climate models had, in stark contrast to their current hegemony, hardly an epistemic role to play in climate scenario analysis at all. Their main function might actually consist in ‘foreseeing future ozone-holes’. In order to argue for these theses, I explain first of all the plurality of climate models used in climate science by the failure to avoid the problem of underdetermination. As a consequence, climate simulation results have to be interpreted as modal sentences, stating what is possibly true of our climate system. This indicates that climate policy decisions are decisions under uncertainty. Two general methodological principles which may guide the construction of the scenario range are formulated and contrasted with each other: modal inductivism and modal falsificationism. I argue that modal inductivism, being the methodology implicitly underlying the third IPCC report, is severely flawed. Modal falsificationism, representing the sound alternative, would in turn require an overhaul of the IPCC practice.Reading list | Discuss | Edit | Categorize |My bibliography
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Climate change is now a global problem that can no longer be ignored. As climate change signals a civilization failure, the emerging reality will spur cultures everywhere to re-examine their traditions and rediscover the ecological wisdom of the ancients. Daoism will be no exception. This paper tries to explain the Daoist response to climate change by focusing on the manifestation of Dao, the responsibility of humankind and the ideal life. It shows that in its tenets and practices, Daoism articulates ideas that emphasize conservation, envision a post-consumerist existence and inform a climate ethics, which can help with the cultural adaptations that are now necessary for a sustainable future.
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| | Other links: dx.doi.org | Scholar | At my library | More options ... This paper argues that there is ethical and practical necessity for including women's needs, perspectives, and expertise in international climate change negotiations. I show that climate change contributes to women's hardships because of the conjunction of the feminization of poverty and environmental degradation caused by climate change. I then provide data I collected in Ghana to demonstrate effects of extreme weather events on women subsistence farmers and argue that women have knowledge to contribute to adaptation efforts. The final section surveys the international climate debate, assesses explanations for its gender blindness, and summarizes the progress on gender that was made at Copenhagen and Cancun in order to document and provoke movement toward climate justice for women.
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| | Other links: dx.doi.org | Scholar | At my library | More options ... For over two decades, international environmental equity - the fair and just sharing of the burdens associated with environmental changes - has been the subject of much debate by philosophers, activists and diplomats concerned about climate change. It has been manifested in many international environmental agreements, notably the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. The question arises as to whether it is being put into practice in this context. Are the requirements of international environmental equity merely words and principles in international instruments, or are they having a practical effect on the policies of state governments? This article aims to start answering these questions. It examines whether the European Union (EU) and its member states are sharing the burdens of climate change. The article introduces equity in the context of the climate change agreements and looks at some normative and practical considerations. It suggests that Europe has been a leader on international equity in the climate change negotiations over the last decade, and it points to what European states and the EU have done to take on some of the burdens of climate change. Europe's actions are briefly assessed from practical and normative perspectives. Europe is doing more than any other part of the world to address climate change and to share the burdens associated with it. Nevertheless, Europe is not doing as much to address this problem as it can and should do. Both practical and normative imperatives demand more urgent action by Europe to implement climate equity.
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| | Other links: informaworld.com dx.doi.org | Scholar | At my library | More options ... In recent years, theoretical and empirical developments in the area of organizational climate has provided the impetus for research concerning ethical climate. According to this latter research, ethical climate is a multi-dimensional construct which is manifested in organizations. Studies, however, have not focused on the relationship between ethical climate and ethical behavior. Furthermore, an enhanced understanding of the multi-dimensionality of ethical climate will likely advance what we know about organizational climate and culture in general. We propose further examination of ethical climate by: (1) showing the conceptual relationship between ethical climate and ethical (or unethical) behavior in organizations; and (2) examining supervision as one of the principle influences on ethical climate and concomitant subordinate behavior. Finally, we explore the implications for future research on ethical climate.
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| | Other links: jstor.org | Scholar | At my library | More options ... Lloyd (2009) contends that climate models are confirmed by various instances of fit between their output and observational data. The present paper argues that what these instances of fit might confirm are not climate models themselves, but rather hypotheses about the adequacy of climate models for particular purposes. This required shift in thinking—from confirming climate models to confirming their adequacy-for-purpose—may sound trivial, but it is shown to complicate the evaluation of climate models considerably, both in principle and in practice.
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| | Other links: blackwell-synergy.com dx.doi.org | Scholar | At my library | More options ... This paper introduces a new conceptual framework for studying moral climate in business firms, offering an alternative to other theoretical models currently in the literature. The framework integrates recent advances in organizational climate theory into a new conceptualization of the moral climate construct that explains how moral climates evolve in organizations and suggests moral climate change.
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| | Other links: springerlink.com dx.doi.org jstor.org | Scholar | At my library | More options ... This paper examines the effects of climate change on different agricultural systems in South America using a microeconometric approach. This approach is different from earlier studies in three ways. First, it models adaptation choices explicitly. Second, it offers a way to measure differential effects of climate change on different agricultural systems. Thirdly, it provides quantitative measures of climate change impacts with and without adaptations. We examine three essential agricultural systems in South America: specialized crop system, specialized livestock system, and mixed crop-livestock system. The results indicate farmers choose specialized farms in a temperate climate zone while they choose mixed farms in a hot climate or a wet climate zone. The impact of climate change will vary by farm system. Under CCC scenario, land values of all three systems fall by 2060, but the decrease is smaller in the mixed system. Specialized crop farm profit falls by 20%, specialized livestock farm profit by 34%, but mixed farm profit falls only by 13%. This causes more farmers to switch away from specialized systems to the mixed system. With the current agricultural system, farmers are predicted to lose 16% of the land value under the CCC scenario. If farmers were to adapt by switching to a best agricultural system under a new climate, they will be able to reduce the damage.
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| | Scholar | More options ... In this article, the author draws attention to the fact that the climate change net is being drawn increasingly tighter around the public and private sectors in order to chase down their climate change footprint. Set in the context of the Stern Review Report and the 2007 IPCC Reports, the author reviews: climate legislation which is seeking to impose deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions; the emergence of climate change litigation; corporate governance obligations for climate change; and the responsibilities for climate change arising as a result of corporate social responsibility. In particular, the role, and power, of institutional investors to require action and disclosure is examined.
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| | Scholar | More options ... Since the 1970s, climate change has dominated the international scientific and political agenda. In particular, the foundation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the end of the 1980s played a major role for the further enhancement of efforts in the field of climate change sciences. However, to understand the interaction of the worldwide coordination of climate change sciences as well as the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and its consequences, it is worthwhile to take a look at the self-conception of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s tasks and work. This paper gives an idea of the history of international climate change science, its representation in public discourse and the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by comprehensively illustrating its tasks, organization and self-image. Furthermore, the article tries to argue that the hitherto accepted concept of science followed within this body fails to integrate the idea of scientific ethics. It can be concluded that the conception of science represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has heavily influenced worldwide attention to climate change, its becoming part of the political agenda as well as the ethical consequences.
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| | Other links: dx.doi.org springerlink.com | Scholar | At my library | More options ... To study Earth’s climate, scientists now use a variety of computer simulation models. These models disagree in some of their assumptions about the climate system, yet they are used together as complementary resources for investigating future climatic change. This paper examines and defends this use of incompatible models. I argue that climate model pluralism results both from uncertainty concerning how to best represent the climate system and from difficulties faced in evaluating the relative merits of complex models. I describe how incompatible climate models are used together in ‘multi-model ensembles’ and explain why this practice is reasonable, given scientists’ inability to identify a ‘best’ model for predicting future climate. Finally, I characterize climate model pluralism as involving both an ontic competitive pluralism and a pragmatic integrative pluralism.
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| | Scholar | At my library | More options ... Discussion of Gregor Betz, Underdetermination, model-ensembles and surprises: On the epistemology of scenario-analysis in climatology
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