J. M. Keynes' 'theory of evidential weight': Its relation to information processing theory and application in the general theory
David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Synthese 71 (1):37 - 59 (1987)
The conclusions derived by Keynes in his Treatise on Probability (1921) concerning induction, analogical reasoning, expectations formation and decision making, mirror and foreshadow the main conclusions of cognitive science and psychology.The problem of weight is studied within an economic context by examining the role it played in Keynes' applied philosophy work, The General Theory (1936). Keynes' approach is then reformulated as an optimal control approach to dealing with changes in information evaluation over time. Based on this analysis the problem of inductive justification, from a societal perspective, is not, What can we rationally believe will occur in the economic future, given our past experiences? but Can we make the future so as to attain specific economic goals with practical certainty? An answer requires that restrictions be placed on the methodological individualist approach and the acceptance of a restricted holistic approach.
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References found in this work BETA
A. J. Ayer (1982/1984). Philosophy in the Twentieth Century. Vintage Books.
Henry Ely Kyburg (1970). Probability and Inductive Logic. [New York]Macmillan.
Nicholas Rescher (1980). Induction: An Essay on the Justification of Inductive Reasoning. Blackwell.
George Shackle (1949). Expectation in Economics. Cambridge University Press.
Citations of this work BETA
Michael Emmett Brady (1988). J. M. Keynes's Position on the General Applicability of Mathematical, Logical and Statistical Methods in Economics and Social Science. Synthese 76 (1):1 - 24.
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