David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Synthese 156 (3):513-535 (2007)
Richard Jeffrey regarded the version of Bayesian decision theory he floated in ‘The Logic of Decision’ and the idea of a probability kinematics—a generalisation of Bayesian conditioning to contexts in which the evidence is ‘uncertain’—as his two most important contributions to philosophy. This paper aims to connect them by developing kinematical models for the study of preference change and practical deliberation. Preference change is treated in a manner analogous to Jeffrey’s handling of belief change: not as mechanical outputs of combinations of intrinsic desires plus information, but as a matter of judgement and of making up one’s mind. In the first section Jeffrey’s probability kinematics is motivated and extended to the treatment of changes in conditional belief. In the second, analogous kinematical models are developed for preference change and in particular belief-induced change that depends on an invariance condition for conditional preference. The two are the brought together in the last section in a tentative model of pratical deliberation.
|Keywords||Preference revision Belief revision Kinematics Bayesian conditioning|
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References found in this work BETA
Richard Jeffrey (1983). The Logic of Decision. University of Chicago Press.
F. P. Ramsey (2010). Truth and Probability. In Antony Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. Routledge 52-94.
John Earman (1992). Bayes or Bust? A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confirmation Theory. MIT Press.
Patrick Maher (1993). Betting on Theories. Cambridge University Press.
Richard C. Jeffrey (1992). Probability and the Art of Judgment. Cambridge University Press.
Citations of this work BETA
Carlo Martini, Jan Sprenger & Mark Colyvan (2013). Resolving Disagreement Through Mutual Respect. Erkenntnis 78 (4):881-898.
H. Orri Stefánsson (2014). Desires, Beliefs and Conditional Desirability. Synthese 191 (16):4019-4035.
Namjoong Kim (2016). A Dilemma for the Imprecise Bayesian. Synthese 193 (6):1681-1702.
Richard Bradley (2009). Revising Incomplete Attitudes. Synthese 171 (2):235 - 256.
Hans van Ditmarsch, Brian Hill & Ondrej Majer (2009). Logic of Change, Change of Logic. Synthese 171 (2):227-234.
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