Probability and choice in the selection task
Thinking and Reasoning 3 (3):209 – 235 (1997)
| Abstract | Two experiments using a realistic version of the selection task examined the relationship between participants probability estimates of finding a counter example and their selections. Experiment 1 used everyday categories in the context of a scenario to determine whether or not the number of instances in a category affected the estimated probability of a counter-example. Experiment 2 modified the scenario in order to alter participants estimates of finding a specific counter-example. Unlike Kirby 1994a , but consistent with his proposals, both studies showed that probability estimates significantly predicted selection. Overall results point to the value of understanding selections in terms of their subjective expected utility. | |||||||||
| Keywords | No keywords specified (fix it) | |||||||||
| Categories | ||||||||||
| Options |
|
|||||||||
Download options| PhilPapers Archive |
Upload a copy of this paper Check publisher's policy on self-archival Papers currently archived: 5,664 |
| External links |
 |
| Through your library | Configure |
Similar books and articlesDavid W. Green David & E. Over (1998). Reaching a Decision: A Reply to Oaksford. Thinking and Reasoning 4 (2):187 – 192.
David Hardman (1998). Does Reasoning Occur on the Selection Task? A Comparison of Relevance-Based Theories. Thinking and Reasoning 4 (4):353 – 376.
Marcus Selart, Ole Boe & Tommy Garling (1999). Reasoning About Outcome Probabilities and Values in Preference Reversals. Thinking and Reasoning 5 (2):175 – 188.
George L. Dunbar (2000). Traces of Reasoning with Pragmatic Schemas. Thinking and Reasoning 6 (2):173 – 181.
Ana Franco-Watkins, Peter Derks & Michael Dougherty (2003). Reasoning in the Monty Hall Problem: Examining Choice Behaviour and Probability Judgements. Thinking and Reasoning 9 (1):67 – 90.
Klaus Oberauer, Oliver Wilhelm & Ricardo Rosas Diaz (1999). Bayesian Rationality for the Wason Selection Task? A Test of Optimal Data Selection Theory. Thinking and Reasoning 5 (2):115 – 144.
Mike Oaksford, Nick Chater & Becki Grainger (1999). Probabilistic Effects in Data Selection. Thinking and Reasoning 5 (3):193 – 243.
Mike Oaksford (1998). Discussion Task Demands and Revising Probabilities in the Selection Task: A Comment on Green, Over, and Pyne. Thinking and Reasoning 4 (2):179 – 186.
Analytics
Monthly downloads |
Added to index2009-02-08Total downloads5 ( #160,239 of 549,013 )Recent downloads (6 months)0How can I increase my downloads? |
My notes
Discussion
