David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Synthese 189 (S1):161-171 (2012)
This research examined whether youth's forecasted risk taking is best predicted by a compensatory (namely, subjective expected utility) or non-compensatory (e.g., single-factor) model. Ninety youth assessed the importance of perceived benefits, importance of perceived drawbacks, subjective probability of benefits, and subjective probability of drawbacks for 16 risky behaviors clustered evenly into recreational and health/safety domains. In both domains, there was strong support for a noncompensatory model in which only the perceived importance of the benefits of engaging in a risky behavior predicted youths' forecasted engagement in risky behavior. The study overcomes earlier methodological weaknesses by fully decomposing participants' assessments into importance and probability aspects for both benefits and drawbacks. As such, the findings provide clear evidence in support of a boundedrationality perspective on youth decision making regarding risk taking
|Keywords||Risk perception Risk taking Subjective expected utility Bounded rationality Youth|
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References found in this work BETA
Peter C. Fishburn (1981). Subjective Expected Utility: A Review of Normative Theories. [REVIEW] Theory and Decision 13 (2):139-199.
Gerd Gigerenzer (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press.
Frank Knight (1921). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. University of Chicago Press.
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