Bayesian personalism, the methodology of scientific research programmes, and Duhem's problem

The detailed analysis of a particular quasi-historical numerical example is used to illustrate the way in which a Bayesian personalist approach to scientific inference resolves the Duhemian problem of which of a conjunction of hypotheses to reject when they jointly yield a prediction which is refuted. Numbers intended to be approximately historically accurate for my example show, in agreement with the views of Lakatos, that a refutation need have astonishingly little effect on a scientist's confidence in the ‘hard core’ of a successful research programme even when a comparable confirmation would greatly enhance that confidence . Timeo Danaos et dona ferentis
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1016/0039-3681(79)90006-2
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Revision history Request removal from index
Download options
PhilPapers Archive

Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy on self-archival     Papers currently archived: 16,658
External links
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library
References found in this work BETA

No references found.

Add more references

Citations of this work BETA
Hannes Leitgeb (2013). Reducing Belief Simpliciter to Degrees of Belief. Annals of Pure and Applied Logic 164 (12):1338-1389.
Henry E. Kyburg (1983). Rational Belief. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6 (2):231.

View all 31 citations / Add more citations

Similar books and articles
Kurt Bayertz (1991). Forschungsprogramm Und Wissenschaftsentwicklung. Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 22 (2):229 - 243.
R. Festa (1993). Optimum Inductive Methods. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht.

Monthly downloads

Added to index


Total downloads

47 ( #72,555 of 1,726,085 )

Recent downloads (6 months)

6 ( #118,705 of 1,726,085 )

How can I increase my downloads?

My notes
Sign in to use this feature

Start a new thread
There  are no threads in this forum
Nothing in this forum yet.