The Group Calibration Index: a group-based approach for assessing forecasters' expertise when external outcome data are missing [Book Review]
Graduate studies at Western
Theory and Decision 73 (4):671-685 (2012)
|Abstract||The Group Calibration Index (GCI) provides a means of assessing the quality of forecasters’ predictions in situations that lack external feedback or outcome data. The GCI replaces the missing outcome data with aggregated ratings of a well-defined reference group. A simulation study and two experiments show how the GCI classifies forecaster performance and distinguishes between forecasters with restricted information and those with complete information. The results also show that under certain circumstances, where members of the reference group have high-quality information, the new GCI will outperform expert classification that is based on traditional calibration indices.|
|Keywords||Group decisions Experts Calibration Uncertainty|
No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
|Through your library||Configure|
Similar books and articles
Raimo Tuomela (1992). Group Beliefs. Synthese 91 (3):285-318.
George R. Young II, Kenneth H. Price & Cynthia Claybrook (2001). Small Group Predictions on an Uncertain Outcome: The Effect of Nondiagnostic Information. Theory and Decision 50 (2):149-167.
Alex de Waal (1997). Group Identity, Rationality, and the State. Critical Review 11 (2):279-289.
Loren Cannon (2011). Moral Taint. Philosophy in the Contemporary World 18 (1):19-30.
Christopher Woodard (2003). Group-Based Reasons for Action. Ethical Theory and Moral Practice 6 (2):215-229.
Geoff Rayner-Canham (2013). Periodic Patterns: The Group (N) and Group (N + 10) Linkage. [REVIEW] Foundations of Chemistry 15 (2):229-237.
Sheron Fraser-Burgess (2011). Group Identity, Deliberative Democracy and Diversity in Education. Educational Philosophy and Theory 44 (5):480-499.
David Killoren & Bekka Williams (2013). Group Agency and Overdetermination. Ethical Theory and Moral Practice 16 (2):295-307.
Teddy Seidenfeld (1985). Calibration, Coherence, and Scoring Rules. Philosophy of Science 52 (2):274-294.
Samir Okasha & Cedric Paternotte (2012). Group Adaptation, Formal Darwinism and Contextual Analysis. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 25 (6):1127–1139.
Samir Okasha (2003). The Concept of Group Heritability. Biology and Philosophy 18 (3):445-461.
Added to index2011-08-18
Total downloads3 ( #214,470 of 749,976 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #62,892 of 749,976 )
How can I increase my downloads?