Non-bayesian foundations for statistical estimation, prediction, and the ravens example

Erkenntnis 40 (3):357 - 376 (1994)
Abstract
The paper provides a formal proof that efficient estimates of parameters, which vary as as little as possible when measurements are repeated, may be expected to provide more accurate predictions. The definition of predictive accuracy is motivated by the work of Akaike (1973). Surprisingly, the same explanation provides a novel solution for a well known problem for standard theories of scientific confirmation — the Ravens Paradox. This is significant in light of the fact that standard Bayesian analyses of the paradox fail to account for the predictive utility of universal laws like All ravens are black.
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
Options
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Revision history Request removal from index
 
Download options
PhilPapers Archive


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy on self-archival     Papers currently archived: 11,105
External links
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library
References found in this work BETA

No references found.

Citations of this work BETA

No citations found.

Similar books and articles
Patrick Maher (2005). Qualitative Confirmation and the Ravens Paradox. Poznan Studies in the Philosophy of the Sciences and the Humanities 83 (1):89-108.
Ernest W. Adams (1988). Confirming Inexact Generalizations. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:10 - 16.
Robert J. Levy (1988). Regarding the Raven Paradox. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:17 - 23.
Mark Siebel (2004). Der Rabe Und der Bayesianist. Journal for General Philosophy of Science 35 (2):313 - 329.
Herbert A. Simon (1991). Black Ravens and a White Shoe. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42 (3):339-342.
Analytics

Monthly downloads

Added to index

2009-01-28

Total downloads

19 ( #89,058 of 1,101,681 )

Recent downloads (6 months)

6 ( #44,817 of 1,101,681 )

How can I increase my downloads?

My notes
Sign in to use this feature


Discussion
Start a new thread
Order:
There  are no threads in this forum
Nothing in this forum yet.