The golfer's dilemma: A reply to Kukla on curve-fitting

Abstract
Curve-fitting typically works by trading off goodness-of-fit with simplicity, where simplicity is measured by the number of adjustable parameters. However, such methods cannot be applied in an unrestricted way. I discuss one such correction, and explain why the exception arises. The same kind of probabilistic explanation offers a surprising resolution to a common-sense dilemma.
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Wang-Yen Lee (2013). Akaike's Theorem and Weak Predictivism in Science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 44 (4):594-599.
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