Graduate studies at Western
Thinking and Reasoning 9 (1):67 – 90 (2003)
|Abstract||This research examined choice behaviour and probability judgement in a counterintuitive reasoning problem called the Monty Hall problem (MHP). In Experiments 1 and 2 we examined whether learning from a simulated card game similar to the MHP affected how people solved the MHP. Results indicated that the experience with the card game affected participants' choice behaviour, in that participants selected to switch in the MHP. However, it did not affect their understanding of the objective probabilities. This suggests that there is dissociation between implicit knowledge gained from the task and the explicit understanding as to why switching was the best strategy. In Experiment 3, the number of prizes and doors were manipulated to examine how participants construed the problem space of the MHP. Results revealed that participants partition the probability judgement to reflect the number of prizes over the number of unopened doors.|
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
|Through your library||Configure|
Similar books and articles
Mike Oaksford (1998). Discussion Task Demands and Revising Probabilities in the Selection Task: A Comment on Green, Over, and Pyne. Thinking and Reasoning 4 (2):179 – 186.
Jeffrey N. Howard, Charles G. Lambdin & Darcee L. Datteri (2007). Let's Make a Deal: Quality and Availability of Second-Stage Information as a Catalyst for Change. Thinking and Reasoning 13 (3):248 – 272.
Ken Levy (2007). Baumann on the Monty Hall Problem and Single-Case Probabilities. Synthese 158 (1):139 - 151.
David W. Green David, E. Over Robin & A. Pyne (1997). Probability and Choice in the Selection Task. Thinking and Reasoning 3 (3):209 – 235.
L. Bovens & J. L. Ferreira (2010). Monty Hall Drives a Wedge Between Judy Benjamin and the Sleeping Beauty: A Reply to Bovens. Analysis 70 (3):473-481.
Mike Oaksford, Nick Chater & Becki Grainger (1999). Probabilistic Effects in Data Selection. Thinking and Reasoning 5 (3):193 – 243.
Jan Sprenger (2010). Probability, Rational Single-Case Decisions and the Monty Hall Problem. Synthese 174 (3):331 - 340.
Dr Tim Rakow, Neal Hinvest, Edward Jackson & Martin Palmer (2004). Simple Heuristics From the Adaptive Toolbox: Can We Perform the Requisite Learning? Thinking and Reasoning 10 (1):1 – 29.
Peter Baumann (2008). Single-Case Probabilities and the Case of Monty Hall: Levy's View. Synthese 162 (2):265 - 273.
Shu Li & Xiaofei Xie (2006). A New Look at the “Asian Disease” Problem: A Choice Between the Best Possible Outcomes or Between the Worst Possible Outcomes? Thinking and Reasoning 12 (2):129 – 143.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads20 ( #68,391 of 740,483 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #61,960 of 740,483 )
How can I increase my downloads?