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The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09
Philosophy of Science 80 (5):886-897 (2013)
Abstract
The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution forecasts of climate during the 21st century using state of the art global climate models. The aim of this paper is to introduce and analyze the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic errors in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision relevant probabilistic forecasts can be seriously misleading. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution predictions out to the end of this centuryAuthor's Profile
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Citations of this work
Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Hailiang Du & Leonard A. Smith - 2014 - Philosophy of Science 81 (1):31-59.
Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation.Erica Thompson, Roman Frigg & Casey Helgeson - 2016 - Philosophy of Science 83 (5):1110-1121.
Why Simpler Computer Simulation Models Can Be Epistemically Better for Informing Decisions.Casey Helgeson, Vivek Srikrishnan, Klaus Keller & Nancy Tuana - 2021 - Philosophy of Science 88 (2):213-233.
Climate Change and Second-Order Uncertainty: Defending a Generalized, Normative, and Structural Argument from Inductive Risk.Daniel Steel - 2016 - Perspectives on Science 24 (6):696-721.
The adventures of climate science in the sweet land of idle arguments.Eric Winsberg & William Mark Goodwin - 2016 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 54:9-17.
References found in this work
When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions.Wendy S. Parker - 2011 - Philosophy of Science 78 (4):579-600.
Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Hailiang Du & Leonard A. Smith - 2014 - Philosophy of Science 81 (1):31-59.
The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We 're Not Wrong?'.Naomi Oreskes - 2007 - In Joseph F. DiMento & Pamela Doughman (eds.), Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. MIT Press. pp. 65.
Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?Naomi Oreskes, David A. Stainforth & Leonard A. Smith - 2010 - Philosophy of Science 77 (5):1012-1028.
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