Deceptive updating and minimal information methods
Synthese 187 (1):147-178 (2012)
| Abstract | The technique of minimizing information (infomin) has been commonly employed as a general method for both choosing and updating a subjective probability function. We argue that, in a wide class of cases, the use of infomin methods fails to cohere with our standard conception of rational degrees of belief. We introduce the notion of a deceptive updating method and argue that non-deceptiveness is a necessary condition for rational coherence. Infomin has been criticized on the grounds that there are no higher order probabilities that ‘support’ it, but the appeal to higher order probabilities is a substantial assumption that some might reject. Our elementary arguments from deceptiveness do not rely on this assumption. While deceptiveness implies lack of higher order support, the converse does not, in general, hold, which indicates that deceptiveness is a more objectionable property. We offer a new proof of the claim that infomin updating of any strictly-positive prior with respect to conditional-probability constraints is deceptive. In the case of expected-value constraints, infomin updating of the uniform prior is deceptive for some random variables but not for others. We establish both a necessary condition and a sufficient condition (which extends the scope of the phenomenon beyond cases previously considered) for deceptiveness in this setting. Along the way, we clarify the relation which obtains between the strong notion of higher order support, in which the higher order probability is defined over the full space of first order probabilities, and the apparently weaker notion, in which it is defined over some smaller parameter space. We show that under certain natural assumptions, the two are equivalent. Finally, we offer an interpretation of Jaynes, according to which his own appeal to infomin methods avoids the incoherencies discussed in this paper | |||||||||
| Keywords | No keywords specified (fix it) | |||||||||
| Categories | ||||||||||
| Options |
|
|||||||||
Download options| PhilPapers Archive |
Upload a copy of this paper Check publisher's policy on self-archival Papers currently archived: 5,705 |
| External links |
  Try with proxy. |
| Through your library | Configure |
Similar books and articlesHenry E. Kyburg Jr (1992). Getting Fancy with Probability. Synthese 90 (2):189 - 203.
Henry E. Kyburg (1992). Getting Fancy with Probability. Synthese 90 (2):189-203.
Matthew J. Ryan (2001). Capacity Updating Rules and Rational Belief Change. Theory and Decision 51 (1):73-87.
Cesaltina Pacheco Pires (2002). A Rule For Updating Ambiguous Beliefs. Theory and Decision 53 (2):137-152.
Soshichi Uchii (1973). Higher Order Probabilities and Coherence. Philosophy of Science 40 (3):373-381.
R. I. G. Hughes & Bas C. Van Fraassen (1984). Symmetry Arguments in Probability Kinematics. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1984:851 - 869.
James Hawthorne (2004). Three Models of Sequential Belief Updating on Uncertain Evidence. Journal of Philosophical Logic 33 (1):89-123.
Analytics
Monthly downloads |
Added to index2010-08-14Total downloads19 ( #64,434 of 549,546 )Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #63,397 of 549,546 )How can I increase my downloads? |
My notes
Discussion
