On the statistical viewpoint concerning the 2nd law of thermodynamics - OR - a reminder on the ehrenfests' urm model

Abstract
In statistical thermodynamics the 2nd law is properly spelled out in terms of conditioned probabilities. As such it makes the statement, that `entropy increases with time' without preferring a time direction. In this paper we try to explain this statement---which is well known since the time of the Ehrenfests---in some detail within a systematic Bayesian approach.
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