A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation

Abstract
The starting point in the development of probabilistic analyses of token causation has usually been the naïve intuition that, in some relevant sense, a cause raises the probability of its effect. But there are well-known examples both of non-probability-raising causation and of probability-raising non-causation. Sophisticated extant probabilistic analyses treat many such cases correctly, but only at the cost of excluding the possibilities of direct non-probability-raising causation, failures of causal transitivity, action-at-a-distance, prevention, and causation by absence and omission. I show that an examination of the structure of these problem cases suggests a different treatment, one which avoids the costs of extant probabilistic analyses
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    References found in this work BETA
    Dorothy Edgington (1997). Mellor on Chance and Causation. [REVIEW] British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 48 (3):411-433.
    Luke Glynn (2010). Deterministic Chance. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 61 (1):51–80.
    Christopher Hitchcock (2001). A Tale of Two Effects. Philosophical Review 110 (3):361-396.
    Christopher Hitchcock (2003). Of Humean Bondage. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 54 (1):1-25.

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