Now you see it, now you don't: emerging contrary results in economics

Journal of Economic Methodology 4 (2):221-244 (1997)
Abstract A number of empirical literatures in economics display the following pattern of results. First, evidence accumulates to support an empirical result. As time passes, however, contrary results emerge that challenge that initial result. This phenomenon raises important issues about (i) what part empirical findings play in how economists come to believe things; and (ii) how believable inferences are to be made from literatures displaying such contrary results. This paper documents this ?emerging contrary result? phenomenon, and investigates the factors causing it. It considerably expands the list of emerging contrary results contained in my 1995 JEM paper. Of more importance, this paper identifies alternative explanations for these instances, and explores whether particular explanations can be plausibly assigned to the 26 examples in this paper.
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