David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
In Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev & Arno Tausch (eds.), History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics (2010)
The article presents a verbal and mathematical model of medium-term business cycles (with a characteristic period of 7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles. The model takes into account a number of approaches to the analysis of such cycles; in the meantime it also takes into account some of the authors' own generalizations and additions that are important for understanding the internal logic of the cycle, its variability and its peculiarities in the present-time conditions. The authors argue that the most important cause of cyclical crises stems from strong structural disproportions that develop during economic booms. These are not only disproportions between different economic sectors, but also disproportions between different societal subsystems; at present these are also disproportions within the World System as a whole. The proposed model of business cycle is based on its subdivision into four phases: – recovery phase (which could be subdivided into the start sub-phase and the acceleration sub-phase); – upswing/prosperity/expansion phase (which could be subdivided into the growth sub-phase and the boom/overheating sub-phase); – recession phase (within which one may single out the crash/bust/acute crisis subphase and the downswing sub-phase); – depression/stagnation phase (which we could subdivide into the stabilization subphase and the breakthrough sub-phase). The article provides a detailed qualitative description of macroeconomic dynamics at all the phases; it specifies driving forces of cyclical dynamics and the causes of transition from one phase to another (including psychological causes); a special attention is paid to the turning point from the peak of overheating to the acute crisis, as well as to the turning point from the downswing to recovery. The proposed mathematical model of Juglar cycle takes into account the following effects that are typical for the market economy: • positive feedbacks between various economic processes; • presence of a certain inertia, time lags in reactions of the economic subsystem to the change in conditions; • amplification by the financial subsystem of positive feedbacks and time lags in the economic subsystem; • excessive reaction to changing conditions during the acute crisis sub-phase. The authors suggest that the current crisis turns out to be rather similar to classical Juglar crises; however, there is also a significant difference, as the current crisis occurs at a truly global scale. Yet, due to this truly global scale of the current crisis, the possibilities of regulation with the national state's measures have turned out to be ineffective,whereas the suprastate regulation of financial processes hardly exists. It is shown that all these have led to the reproduction of the current crisis according to a classical Juglar scenario.
|Keywords||business cycles Juglar cycles crises financial globalization macroeconomic dynamics stagnation overheating|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Samuel Agnew Schreiner (2009). The World According to Cycles: How Recurring Forces Can Predict the Future and Change Your Life. Skyhorse Pub..
G. Rossouw (2012). Global Business Ethical Perspectives on Capitalism, Finance and Corporate Responsibility: The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. [REVIEW] Asian Journal of Business Ethics 1 (1):63-72.
Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev & Arno Tausch (eds.) (2010). History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics.
Roger Berkowitz & Taun N. Toay (eds.) (2013). The Intellectual Origins of the Global Financial Crisis. Fordham University Press.
Armin Beverungen, Stephen Dunne & Casper Hoedemaekers (2013). The Financialisation of Business Ethics. Business Ethics 22 (1):102-117.
Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2009). Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions. World Futures 65 (7):477 – 506.
Andrey Korotayev & Leonid Grinin (2009). Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions. World Futures 65 (7):477-506.
Ned Dobos, Christian Barry & Thomas Winfried Menko Pogge (eds.) (2011). Global Financial Crisis: The Ethical Issues. Palgrave Macmillan.
Anastasia Nesvetailova (2005). United in Debt: Towards a Global Crisis of Debt-Driven Finance? Science and Society 69 (3):396 - 419.
F. Fassy, J.-F. Hervagaule, T. Letellier, J. P. Mazat, C. Reder & P. Villalobos (1992). Application of the Metabolic Control Theory to the Study of the Dynamics of Substrate Cycles. Acta Biotheoretica 40 (2-3):121-129.
Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2010). Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions. Journal of Globalization Studies 1 (2):166-183.
Clive R. Boddy (2011). The Corporate Psychopaths Theory of the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of Business Ethics 102 (2):255-259.
John E. Roemer (2012). Ideology, Social Ethos, and the Financial Crisis. Journal of Ethics 16 (3):273-303.
Leonid Grinin (2012). Macrohistory and Globalization. Uchitel Publishing House.
Added to index2011-09-26
Total downloads16 ( #118,996 of 1,689,874 )
Recent downloads (6 months)3 ( #78,763 of 1,689,874 )
How can I increase my downloads?