David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Prediction markets are low volume speculative markets whose prices oﬀer informative forecasts on particular policy topics. Observers worry that traders may attempt to mislead decision makers by manipulating prices. We adapt a Kyle-style market microstructure model to this case, adding a manipulator with an additional quadratic preference regarding the price. In this model, when other traders are uncertain about the manipulator’s target price, the mean target price has no eﬀect on prices, and increases in the variance of the target price can increase average price accuracy, by increasing the returns to informed trading and thereby incentives for traders to become informed
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library||
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Matt Zwolinski (2010). Price Gouging and Market Failure. In Gerald Gaus, Julian Lamont & Christi Favor (eds.), ESSAYS ON PHILOSOPHY, POLITICS & ECONOMIC: INTEGRATION AND COMMON RESEARCH PROJECTS. Stanford University Press.
Yiling Chen, Rahul Sami & Daniel M. Reeves, Gaming Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker.
Robert Gielissen & Johan Graafland (2009). Concepts of Price Fairness: Empirical Research Into the Dutch Coffee Market. Business Ethics 18 (2):165-178.
I. I. I. Session, Transaction Costs and Informational Cascades in Financial Markets: Theory and Experimental Evidence.
Added to index2009-03-15
Total downloads15 ( #157,030 of 1,696,808 )
Recent downloads (6 months)9 ( #64,794 of 1,696,808 )
How can I increase my downloads?