David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
My horoscope today says, “Focus on the small stuff.” Now, such advice does have content. It predicts that when readers interpret its words in the usual way as a guide to action, those who do what they think it recommends will, on average, feel they got more of what they wanted than those who ignored it. Even so, astrologers sure don’t make it easy for us to test their claims. If they wanted to make it easier, they would do what forecasters in weather, sports, and business do: issue forecasts in a clear, standardized form. A horoscope is like a weather forecast that says, “Some rain likely nearby, soon.” It’s much easier to evaluate a forecast that a particular rain gauge has a..
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library||
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Michael D. Mumford, Chase E. Thiel, Jared J. Caughron, Xiaoqian Wang, Alison L. Antes & Cheryl K. Stenmark (2010). Strategies in Forecasting Outcomes in Ethical Decision-Making: Identifying and Analyzing the Causes of the Problem. Ethics and Behavior 20 (2):110-127.
Cheryl K. Stenmark, Alison L. Antes, Xiaoqian Wang, Jared J. Caughron, Chase E. Thiel & Michael D. Mumford (2010). Strategies in Forecasting Outcomes in Ethical Decision-Making: Identifying and Analyzing the Causes of the Problem. Ethics and Behavior 20 (2):110 – 127.
Guanchun Wang, Sanjeev R. Kulkarni & Daniel N. Osherson, Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment.
Nigel Harvey (2007). Use of Heuristics: Insights From Forecasting Research. Thinking and Reasoning 13 (1):5 – 24.
Peter Ayton, Alice Pott & Najat Elwakili (2007). Affective Forecasting: Why Can't People Predict Their Emotions? Thinking and Reasoning 13 (1):62 – 80.
Robert S. Goldfarb, H. O. Stekler & Joel David (2005). Methodological Issues in Forecasting: Insights From the Egregious Business Forecast Errors of Late 1930. Journal of Economic Methodology 12 (4):517-542.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads14 ( #246,252 of 1,792,018 )
Recent downloads (6 months)8 ( #102,466 of 1,792,018 )
How can I increase my downloads?