A surprise for Horwich (and some advocates of the fine-tuning argument (which does not include Horwich (as far as I know)))
David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Philosophical Studies 161 (2):247-261 (2012)
The judgment that a given event is epistemically improbable is necessary but insufficient for us to conclude that the event is surprising. Paul Horwich has argued that surprising events are, in addition, more probable given alternative background assumptions that are not themselves extremely improbable. I argue that Horwich’s definition fails to capture important features of surprises and offer an alternative definition that accords better with intuition. An important application of Horwich’s analysis has arisen in discussions of fine-tuning arguments. In the second part of the paper I consider the implications for this argument of employing my definition of surprise. I argue that advocates of fine-tuning arguments are not justified in attaching significance to the fact that we are surprised by examples of fine-tuning.
|Keywords||Surprise Fine-tuning Horwich Multiverse Intelligent design|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
David J. Bartholomew (1984). God of Chance. Scm Press.
Nick Bostrom (2002). Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy. Routledge.
I. J. Good (1984). A Bayesian Approach in the Philosophy of Inference. [REVIEW] British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 35 (2):161-166.
Paul Horwich (1982). Probability and Evidence. Cambridge University Press.
John Leslie (1989). Universes. Routledge.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Neil A. Manson (2009). The Fine-Tuning Argument. Philosophy Compass 4 (1):271-286.
Mark Colyvan, Jay L. Garfield & Graham Priest (2005). Problems with the Argument From Fine Tuning. Synthese 145 (3):325 - 338.
Graham Wood (2006). The Fine-Tuning Argument: The ‘Design Inference’ Version. Religious Studies 42 (4):467-471.
John Roberts (2012). Fine-Tuning and the Infrared Bull's-Eye. Philosophical Studies 160 (2):287-303.
M. C. Bradley (2001). The Fine-Tuning Argument. Religious Studies 37 (4):451-466.
Stephen E. Parrish (1999). Theodore Drange on the Fine-Tuning Argument: A Critique. Philosophia Christi 1 (2):73 - 87.
R. White (2011). What Fine-Tuning's Got to Do with It: A Reply to Weisberg. Analysis 71 (4):676-679.
Jonathan Weisberg (2012). The Argument From Divine Indifference. Analysis 72 (4):707-714.
Phil Dowe (2003). The Coincidences of Time Travel. Philosophy of Science 70 (3):574-589.
Mark Douglas Saward (2013). Fine-Tuning as Evidence for a Multiverse: Why White is Wrong. [REVIEW] International Journal for Philosophy of Religion 73 (3):243-253.
Bradley Monton (2006). God, Fine-Tuning, and the Problem of Old Evidence. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 57 (2):405-424.
Mark A. Walker & M. Milan (2006). Astrophysical Fine Tuning, Naturalism, and the Contemporary Design Argument. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 20 (3):285 – 307.
T. J. Mawson (2011). Explaining the Fine Tuning of the Universe to Us and the Fine Tuning of Us to the Universe. Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement 68 (68):25-50.
Theodore M. Drange (2000). A Response to Parrish on the Fine-Tuning Argument. Philosophia Christi 2 (1):61 - 67.
Michael Rota (2005). Multiple Universes and the Fine-Tuning Argument: A Response to Rodney Holder. Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 86 (4):556–576.
Added to index2011-04-26
Total downloads60 ( #32,373 of 1,692,603 )
Recent downloads (6 months)27 ( #6,452 of 1,692,603 )
How can I increase my downloads?