David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Synthese 187 (1):269-292 (2012)
Most investigations into how people make risky choices have employed a simple drosophila: monetary gambles involving stated outcomes and probabilities. People are asked to make decisions from description . When people decide whether to back up their computer hard drive, cross a busy street, or go out on a date, however, they do not enjoy the convenience of stated outcomes and probabilities. People make such decisions either in the void of ignorance or in the twilight of their own often limited experience of such real-world options. In the latter case, they make decisions from experience . Recent research has consistently documented that decisions from description and decisions from experience can lead to substantially different choices. Key in this description–experience gap is people’s treatment of rare events. In this paper, I briefly review studies that have documented the description–experience gap, offer several explanations for this gap, and discuss to what extent people’s decisions from experience are in conflict with benchmarks of rationality.
|Keywords||Choice Risk Rationality Decisions from experience Rarity|
No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
Leonard J. Savage (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley Publications in Statistics.
Ralph Hertwig & Ido Erev (2009). The Description–Experience Gap in Risky Choice. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 13 (12):517-523.
Isaac Levi (1974). On Indeterminate Probabilities. Journal of Philosophy 71 (13):391-418.
Frank Knight (1921). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. University of Chicago Press.
Citations of this work BETA
Cleotilde Gonzalez & Katja Mehlhorn (2015). Framing From Experience: Cognitive Processes and Predictions of Risky Choice. Cognitive Science 40 (1):n/a-n/a.
Dirk Ostwald, Ludger Starke & Ralph Hertwig (2015). A Normative Inference Approach for Optimal Sample Sizes in Decisions From Experience. Frontiers in Psychology 6.
Similar books and articles
Horacio Arlo-Costa & Jeffrey Helzner, Iterated Random Selection as Intermediate Between Risk and Uncertainty.
Edmund Fantino & Stephanie Stolarz-Fantino (2003). Experience and Decisions. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 26 (2):160-160.
Hugh LaFollette (1998). Circumscribed Autonomy: Children, Care, and Custody. In Uma Narayan & Julia Bartkowiak (eds.), Having and Raising Children. Penn State University Press
Simon N. Whitney & Laurence B. McCullough (2007). Physicians' Silent Decisions: Because Patient Autonomy Does Not Always Come First. American Journal of Bioethics 7 (7):33 – 38.
Marcel Zeelenberg (1999). The Use of Crying Over Spilled Milk: A Note on the Rationality and Functionality of Regret. Philosophical Psychology 12 (3):325 – 340.
Vivian Waddell (2007). A Phenomenological Description of the Inner Voice Experience of Ordinary People. Journal of Consciousness Studies 14 (8):35-57.
Rupert Sheldrake (2005). The Sense of Being Stared at -- Part 1: Is It Real or Illusory? Journal of Consciousness Studies 12 (6):10-31.
Stephen Ellis (2006). Multiple Objectives: A Neglected Problem in the Theory of Human Action. Synthese 153 (2):313 - 338.
Gerd Gigerenzer (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press.
Peter M. Todd & Gerd Gigerenzer (2000). Précis of Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (5):727-741.
Bart Geurts (2013). Alternatives in Framing and Decision Making. Mind and Language 28 (1):1-19.
Alfonso R. Oddo (2001). Healthcare Ethics: A Patient-Centered Decision Model. [REVIEW] Journal of Business Ethics 29 (1-2):125 - 134.
Amos Schurr & Ido Erev (2007). The Effect of Base Rate, Careful Analysis, and the Distinction Between Decisions From Experience and From Description. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):281-281.
Added to index2011-10-22
Total downloads62 ( #73,668 of 1,938,542 )
Recent downloads (6 months)7 ( #82,550 of 1,938,542 )
How can I increase my downloads?