David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (1):1-34 (2004)
an observation to formulate a theory, it is no surprise that the resulting theory accurately captures that observation. However, when the theory makes a novel prediction—when it predicts an observation that was not used in its formulation—this seems to provide more substantial confirmation of the theory. This paper presents a new approach to the vexed problem of understanding the epistemic difference between prediction and accommodation. In fact, there are several problems that need to be disentangled; in all of them, the key is the concept of overfitting. We float the hypothesis that accommodation is a defective methodology only when the methods used to accommodate the data fail to guard against the risk of overfitting. We connect our analysis with the proposals that other philosophers have made. We also discuss its bearing on the conflict between instrumentalism and scientific realism. Introduction Predictivisms—a taxonomy Observations Formulating the problem What might Annie be doing wrong? Solutions Observations explained Mayo on severe tests The miracle argument and scientific realism Concluding comments.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
K. Steele & C. Werndl (2013). Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (3):609-635.
David Harker (2008). On the Predilections for Predictions. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 59 (3):429-453.
Richard Dawid, Stephan Hartmann & Jan Sprenger (2015). The No Alternatives Argument. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 66 (1):213-234.
Shannon Spaulding (2015). Phenomenology of Social Cognition. Erkenntnis 80 (5):1069-1089.
M. Colombo & P. Series (2012). Bayes in the Brain--On Bayesian Modelling in Neuroscience. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 63 (3):697-723.
Similar books and articles
Robin Collins (1994). Against the Epistemic Value of Prediction Over Accommodation. Noûs 28 (2):210-224.
Patrick Maher (1988). Prediction, Accommodation, and the Logic of Discovery. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:273 - 285.
Roger White (2003). The Epistemic Advantage of Prediction Over Accommodation. Mind 112 (448):653-683.
Colin Howson (1988). Accommodation, Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation Theory. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:381 - 392.
David Harker (2006). Accommodation and Prediction: The Case of the Persistent Head. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 57 (2):309-321.
Lee C. McIntyre (2001). Accomodation, Prediction, and Confirmation. Perspectives on Science 9 (3):308-323.
Marc Lange (2001). The Apparent Superiority of Prediction to Accommodation as a Side Effect: A Reply to Maher. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 52 (3):575-588.
Wang-Yen Lee (2012). Hitchcock and Sober on Weak Predictivism. Philosophia 40 (3):553-562.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads123 ( #28,892 of 1,790,061 )
Recent downloads (6 months)8 ( #105,400 of 1,790,061 )
How can I increase my downloads?