Online research in philosophy

Bayesian theory now incorporates a vast body of mathematical, statistical and computational techniques that are widely applied in a panoply of disciplines, from artificial intelligence to zoology. Yet Bayesians rarely agree on the basics, even on the question of what Bayesianism actually is. This book is about the basics e about the opportunities, questions and problems that face Bayesianism today.

Agnosticism has had some bad press in recent years. Nonetheless, I hope to show that agnosticism can be so formulated that it is no less philosophically respectable than theism and atheism. This is not a mere philosophical exercise; for, as it happens, the formulated position is--I think--the one to which I subscribe. I include a qualification here since it may be that the position to which I subscribe is better characterised as fallibilist atheism--but more of that anon.

This book contains Volumes 1 and 2 of the original works.

Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE) and Bayesianism are our two most prominent theories of scientific inference. Are they compatible? Van Fraassen famously argued that they are not, concluding that IBE must be wrong since Bayesianism is right. Writers since then, from both the Bayesian and explanationist camps, have usually considered van Fraassen's argument to be misguided, and have plumped for the view that Bayesianism and IBE are actually compatible. I argue that van Fraassen's argument is actually not so misguided, and that it causes more trouble for compatibilists than is typically thought. Bayesianism in its dominant, subjectivist form, can only be made compatible with IBE if IBE is made subservient to conditionalization in a way that robs IBE of much of its substance and interest. If Bayesianism and IBE are to be fit together, I argue, a strongly objective Bayesianism is the preferred option. I go on to sketch this objectivist, IBE-based Bayesianism, and offer some preliminary suggestions for its development.

According to the presumption of atheism, we are to presume disbelief unless agnosticism or theism can be adequately defended. In this paper I will defend the presumption of atheism against a popular objection made by Thomas Morris and elucidate an insuperable difficulty for any attempt to argue for a presumption of agnosticism.

Lectures on evolution -- On the physical basis of life -- Naturalism and supernaturalism -- The value of witness to the miraculous -- Agnosticism -- The Christian tradition in relation to Judaic Christianity -- Agnosticism and Christianity.

Within certain philosophical debates, most notably those concerning the limits of our knowledge, agnosticism seems a plausible, and potentially the right, stance to take. Yet, in order to qualify as a proper stance, and not just the refusal to adopt any, agnosticism must be shown to be in opposition to both endorsement and denial and to be answerable to future evidence. This paper explicates and defends the thesis that agnosticism may indeed define such a third stance that is weaker than scepticism and hence offers a genuine alternative to realism and anti-realism about our cognitive limits.

According to one view, there cannot: Bayesianism fails to do justice to essential aspects of knowledge and belief, and as such it cannot provide a genuine epistemology at all. According to another view, Bayesianism should supersede traditional epistemology: where the latter has been mired in endless debates over skepticism and Gettierology, Bayesianism offers the epistemologist a thriving research program. We will advocate a more moderate view: Bayesianism can illuminate various long­standing problems of epistemology, while not addressing all of them; and while Bayesianism opens up fascinating new areas of research, it by no means closes down the staple preoccupations of traditional epistemology. The contrast between the two epistemologies can be traced back to the mid­17th century. Descartes regarded belief as an all­or­nothing matter, and he sought justifications for his claims to knowledge in the face of powerful skeptical arguments. No more than four years after his death, Pascal and Fermat inaugurated the..