David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
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British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 54 (4):527-551 (2003)
Elliot Sober () forcefully restates his well-known counterexample to Reichenbach's principle of the common cause: bread prices in Britain and sea levels in Venice both rise over time and are, therefore, correlated; yet they are ex hypothesi not causally connected, which violates the principle of the common cause. The counterexample employs nonstationary data—i.e., data with time-dependent population moments. Common measures of statistical association do not generally reflect probabilistic dependence among nonstationary data. I demonstrate the inadequacy of the counterexample and of some previous responses to it, as well as illustrating more appropriate measures of probabilistic dependence in the nonstationary case. A challenge to the principle of the common causeSober's argument and the attempts to rescue the principleProbabilistic dependenceNonstationary time seriesProbabilistic dependence in nonstationary time seriesDo Venetian sea levels and British bread prices violate the principle of the common cause?
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Citations of this work BETA
Clark Glymour (2010). What is Right with 'Bayes Net Methods' and What is Wrong with 'Hunting Causes and Using Them'? British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 61 (1):161-211.
Frederick Eberhardt (2009). Introduction to the Epistemology of Causation. Philosophy Compass 4 (6):913-925.
Clark Glymour (2009). Jon Williamson Bayesian Nets and Causality. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 60 (4):849-855.
Frederick Eberhardt & Richard Scheines (2007). Interventions and Causal Inference. Philosophy of Science 74 (5):981-995.
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