David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics 1 (3):325-367 (1980)
Common probability theories only allow the deduction of probabilities by using previously known or presupposed probabilities. They do not, however, allow the derivation of probabilities from observed data alone. The question thus arises as to how probabilities in the empirical sciences, especially in medicine, may be arrived at. Carnap hoped to be able to answer this question byhis theory of inductive probabilities. In the first four sections of the present paper the above mentioned problem is discussed in general. After a short presentation of Carnap''s theory it is then shown that this theory cannot claim validity for arbitrary random processes. It is suggested that the theory be only applied to binomial and multinomial experiments. By application of de Finetti''s theorem Carnap''s inductive probabilities are interpreted as consecutive probabilities of the Bayesian kind. Through the introduction of a new axiom the decision parameter can be determined even if no a priori knowledge is given. Finally, it is demonstrated that the fundamental problem of Wald''s decision theory, i.e., the determination of a plausible criterion where no a priori knowledge is available, can be solved for the cases of binomial and multinomial experiments.
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
Nelson Goodman (1983). Fact, Fiction, and Forecast. Harvard University Press.
Leonard J. Savage (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley Publications in Statistics.
Rudolf Carnap (1962). Logical Foundations of Probability. Chicago]University of Chicago Press.
Ian Hacking (1976). Logic of Statistical Inference. Cambridge University Press.
Richard B. Braithwaite (1953). Scientific Explanation. Cambridge University Press.
Citations of this work BETA
No citations found.
Similar books and articles
Reidar K. Lie (1984). The Use of Interval Estimators as a Basis for Decision-Making in Medicine. Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics 5 (3).
Simon Saunders (forthcoming). What is Probability? Arxiv Preprint Quant-Ph/0412194.
Jaakko Hintikka (ed.) (1975). Rudolf Carnap, Logical Empiricist: Materials and Perspectives. D. Reidel Pub. Co..
Patrick Maher (2006). A Conception of Inductive Logic. Philosophy of Science 73 (5):513-523.
Edward H. Allen (1976). Negative Probabilities and the Uses of Signed Probability Theory. Philosophy of Science 43 (1):53-70.
Matthew Weiner & Nuel Belnap (2006). How Causal Probabilities Might Fit Into Our Objectively Indeterministic World. Synthese 149 (1):1--36.
Paul Weirich (1983). Conditional Probabilities and Probabilities Given Knowledge of a Condition. Philosophy of Science 50 (1):82-95.
John C. Harsanyi (1983). Bayesian Decision Theory, Subjective and Objective Probabilities, and Acceptance of Empirical Hypotheses. Synthese 57 (3):341 - 365.
Hugues Leblanc (1962/2006). Statistical and Inductive Probabilities. Dover Publications.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads12 ( #200,263 of 1,724,889 )
Recent downloads (6 months)3 ( #210,931 of 1,724,889 )
How can I increase my downloads?