Synchronic bayesian updating and the sleeping beauty problem: Reply to Pust

Synthese 160 (2):155 - 159 (2008)
I maintain, in defending “thirdism,” that Sleeping Beauty should do Bayesian updating after assigning the “preliminary probability” 1/4 to the statement S: “Today is Tuesday and the coin flip is heads.” (This preliminary probability obtains relative to a specific proper subset I of her available information.) Pust objects that her preliminary probability for S is really zero, because she could not be in an epistemic situation in which S is true. I reply that the impossibility of being in such an epistemic situation is irrelevant, because relative to I, statement S nonetheless has degree of evidential support 1/4.
Keywords Sleeping Beauty  Probability  Epistemic probability  Preliminary probability  Credence  Bayesian updating  Synchronic Bayesian updating
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References found in this work BETA
EC Barnes (1999). The Quantitative Problem of Old Evidence. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 50 (2):249-264.
Clark Glymour (1980). Theory and Evidence. Princeton University Press.
Colin Howson (1984). Bayesianism and Support by Novel Facts. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 35 (3):245-251.

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