Significance testing with no alternative hypothesis: A measure of surprise [Book Review]

Erkenntnis 70 (2):253-270 (2009)
Abstract
A pure significance test would check the agreement of a statistical model with the observed data even when no alternative model was available. The paper proposes the use of a modified p -value to make such a test. The model will be rejected if something surprising is observed. It is shown that the relation between this measure of surprise and the surprise indices of Weaver and Good is similar to the relationship between a p -value, a corresponding odds-ratio, and a logit or log-odds statistic. The s -value is always larger than the corresponding p -value, and is not uniformly distributed. Difficulties with the whole approach are discussed
Keywords Philosophy   Philosophy   Epistemology   Ontology   Ethics   Logic
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References found in this work BETA
Harold Jeffreys (1940). Theory of Probability. Journal of Philosophy 37 (19):524-528.
Alonzo Church (1940). On the Concept of a Random Sequence. Journal of Symbolic Logic 5 (2):71-72.
J. V. Howard (1975). Computable Explanations. Mathematical Logic Quarterly 21 (1):215-224.

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