Abstract

Notwithstanding the notion of progress, the social and environmental record of our age poses serious doubts for the present and the future. Technology, being the mainspring of progress, may be seen, accordingly, as the master of history more than the servant of society. In line with this view, a case can be made to strengthen the value of technology and to weaken the deterministic character of history. To do so, the paper canvasses the use of artificial markets designed to improve compliance of technology with environmental or social standards. The emerging interest in following this path poses a radical departure from the traditional policy approach to technology assessment. The traditional approach may be described asex ante, relying on cost-benefit analysis to anticipate the welfare effects of technology, combining this analysis with bureaucratic management based on command and control. Cost-benefit analysis, however, is piecemeal and shortsighted and, in a dynamic and synergistic world, can be considered of limited value to ensure longer-term goals. On the other hand, artificial markets operateex post and on the basis of ambient standards. As such, they constitute an artificial device that does not require discretion and a predictive capacity that social science cannot offer. Nonetheless, and given political will, this new approach offers the potential to ensure efficient and sustainable outcomes under conditions of uncertainty