The psychology of dynamic probability judgment: order effect, normative theories, and experimental methodology
David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
Learn more about PhilPapers
Mind and Society 6 (1):53-66 (2007)
The Bayesian model is used in psychology as the reference for the study of dynamic probability judgment. The main limit induced by this model is that it confines the study of revision of degrees of belief to the sole situations of revision in which the universe is static (revising situations). However, it may happen that individuals have to revise their degrees of belief when the message they learn specifies a change of direction in the universe, which is considered as changing with time (updating situations). We analyze the main results of the experimental literature with regard to elementary qualitative properties of these two situations of revision. First, the order effect phenomenon is confronted with the commutative property. Second, an apparent new phenomenon is presented: the redundancy effect that is confronted with the idempotence property. Finally, results obtained in this kind of experimental situations are reinterpreted in the light of pragmatic analysis
|Keywords||dynamic probability judgment - Bayesian coherence - Revising - Updating -linguistic pragmatics - order effect|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
|Through your library|
References found in this work BETA
Judea Pearl (2000). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. Cambridge University Press.
D. Sperber & D. Wilson (1995). Relevance. Blackwell.
F. P. Ramsey (2010). Truth and Probability. In Antony Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. Routledge 52-94.
Glenn Shafer (1976). A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton University Press.
Citations of this work BETA
Jean Baratgin (2015). Rationality, the Bayesian Standpoint, and the Monty-Hall Problem. Frontiers in Psychology 6.
Similar books and articles
Sr Copeland (1966). Mathematical Proof and Experimental Proof. Philosophy of Science 33 (4):303-.
William A. Weeks, Justin G. Longenecker, Joseph A. McKinney & Carlos W. Moore (2005). The Role of Mere Exposure Effect on Ethical Tolerance: A Two-Study Approach. [REVIEW] Journal of Business Ethics 58 (4):281 - 294.
Ellery Eells (1986). Probabilistic Causal Interaction. Philosophy of Science 53 (1):52-64.
Adam Feltz & Edward T. Cokely (2011). Individual Differences in Theory-of-Mind Judgments: Order Effects and Side Effects. Philosophical Psychology 24 (3):343 - 355.
C. Waidacher (1997). Hidden Assumptions in the Dutch Book Argument. Theory and Decision 43 (3):293-312.
Giacomo Bonanno (2008). Belief Revision in a Temporal Framework. In Krzysztof Apt & Robert van Rooij (eds.), New Perspectives on Games and Interaction. Amsterdam University Press
Johan van Benthem (2007). Dynamic Logic for Belief Revision. Journal of Applied Non-Classical Logics 17 (2):129-155.
Ilkka Niiniluoto (2011). Revising Beliefs Towards the Truth. Erkenntnis 75 (2):165-181.
Robin M. Hogarth (2005). The Challenge of Representative Design in Psychology and Economics. Journal of Economic Methodology 12 (2):253-263.
Jean Baratgin & Guy Politzer (2006). Is the Mind Bayesian? The Case for Agnosticism. Mind and Society 5 (1):1-38.
Added to index2010-08-10
Total downloads8 ( #404,559 of 1,911,083 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #457,075 of 1,911,083 )
How can I increase my downloads?