David Bourget (Western Ontario)
David Chalmers (ANU, NYU)
Rafael De Clercq
Ezio Di Nucci
Jack Alan Reynolds
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Synthese 176 (1):41 - 55 (2010)
Orthodox Probabilists hold that an inquirer ought to harbor a precise degree of confidence in each hypothesis about which she is concerned. Modest Probabilism is one of a family doctrines inspired by the thought that Orthodox Probabilists are thereby demanding that an inquirer effect a precision that is often unwarranted by her evidence. The purpose of this essay is (i) to explain the particular way in which Modest Probabilism answers to this thought, and (ii) to address an alleged counterexample to Modest Probabilism meant to offer proof that Modest Probabilism is no better than its orthodox predecessor at avoiding unwarranted precision
|Keywords||Orthodox Probabilism Modest Probabilism Warrant Evidence Decision theory|
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Leonard J. Savage (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley Publications in Statistics.
Rudolf Carnap (1962). Logical Foundations of Probability. Chicago]University of Chicago Press.
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Citations of this work BETA
Miriam Schoenfield (2015). The Accuracy and Rationality of Imprecise Credences. Noûs 50 (3):n/a-n/a.
Paul D. Thorn (2014). Defeasible Conditionalization. Journal of Philosophical Logic 43 (2-3):283-302.
Seamus Bradley & Katie Steele (2014). Uncertainty, Learning, and the “Problem” of Dilation. Erkenntnis 79 (6):1287-1303.
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